U.S. stock index futures pointed to a modestly firmer open on Wednesday as investors leaned on a softer-than-expected June inflation reading and digested chip bellwether ASML's earnings. They also awaited a heavy slate of second-quarter earnings from Wall Street banks, and pharma and healthcare giant Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). S&P 500 futures climbed 0.19% early Wednesday.
The move followed Tuesday's rebound on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 closed higher, boosted by semiconductor stocks, after June inflation data came in weaker than expected. The broad market index finished up 0.38% at 7,543.59, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.9% to end the day at 26,107.01. The Dow Jones Industrial Average settled up just 9.63 points, or 0.02%, at 52,508.27.
The softer inflation reading prompted traders to sharply reduce expectations for an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a July hike fell to 17% from 42% ahead of the print, although markets still see a meaningful chance of higher rates later this year. Still, oil prices remained elevated as renewed U.S. strikes on Iran continued to fuel geopolitical uncertainty. Brent crude remained above $85 per barrel even after retreating from session highs. Markets also continue to price in a high probability of a Fed rate hike by September.
Premarket Snapshot
| Instrument | Level / Change |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | +0.19% |
| Dow Jones futures | +0.13% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | +0.49% |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 4.61% (rising to highest since late May) |
| WTI crude futures | Around $80/bbl (up more than 1%) |
| Brent crude futures | Above $85/bbl (up nearly 1%) |
| Gold futures | $4,037.20 (down 0.80%) |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 101.01 (up about 0.10%) |
| VIX | Easing after Tuesday's 14% spike |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | ~$64,585.97 (up about 3%) |
Crude oil prices have continued rising this week and is seen as a source of potential inflation, and therefore, market participants still expect the Fed to hike rates later this year. In crypto, BTC broke above $64,000 on increased volume and reached around $65,000 at its peak, showing stronger short-term momentum. However, as $65,000 remains a key resistance level from previous price action, BTC continues to face selling pressure from profit-taking at higher levels.
US Stocks in Focus
ASML Holding (ASML) headlines the premarket action ahead of the New York open. ASML shares rose about 4% Wednesday in European trading and were up by the same magnitude in premarket trading in the U.S. the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker reported strong second-quarter revenue and raised its 2026 forecast and also hinted at 30% capacity expansion in each of the next two years, underlining the durability of the artificial intelligence (AI) momentum. The company's Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology is used for manufacturing IC circuits that power AI.
Chipmakers remain in the spotlight after Tuesday's sector bounce. Semiconductor stocks rebounded after a sell-off in the previous session. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) traded 2.5% higher. ASML's guidance could reverberate through Nvidia, Broadcom and AMD at the open.
Morgan Stanley (MS), BNY Mellon (BNY), and BlackRock (BK) are among the key financial earnings slated for Wednesday.
IBM (IBM) shares remain under scrutiny after a steep post-earnings preannaouncement drop. Shares of the company (down over 25% on Tuesday) weighed on the 30-stock Dow, after the company warned second-quarter profits will be lower than expected due to soft demand in its software and infrastructure businesses.
Oil refiners stay on watch as elevated crude prices bolster crack spreads. Crack spreads are wide, driving four oil refiners — Valero Energy, Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66 and Par Pacific Holdings — to all-time highs Tuesday. Three other refiners are close to all-time highs reached either in 2018 or 2024 — PBF Energy, Delek US Holdings and HF Sinclair. All seven have seen spectacular runs. Valero is up 83% in 2026, Marathon is ahead 86%, Phillips has rallied 56% and Parr Pacific has more than doubled, soaring 108%. PBF is 123% higher in 2026, while Delek has climbed 103% and HF Sinclair by 79%.
Asia Recap: Mixed Close as Energy Names Lift Japan
Asian equities finished Tuesday's session mostly higher, with the exception of the Chinese and New Zealand markets. Investors reacted to the AI optimism in the wake of the tame U.S. CPI print and elevated oil prices against the Iran-linked risk backdrop. Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 1.49% higher at 68,751.51, supported by gains in energy stocks amid elevated oil prices. Japan's largest oil and gas exploration and production firm Inpex advanced 3.9%, petroleum company Idemitsu Kosan added nearly 2% and Cosmo Energy ended 1.5% higher.
South Korea's Kospi rose 6.24% to 72,84.41, with index heavyweight SK Hynix soaring 8.83%. Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 ended up 0.37% at 8,841.10. On the other hand, China's Shanghai Composite settled down 0.29% at 3,955.58 following the release of second-quarter GDP that showed a slowdown in economic expansion both sequentially and year over year.
Macro and Policy Watch
- US Producer Price Index (PPI) for June — key follow-up to Tuesday's softer CPI print
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testimony before the Senate Banking Committee
- ASML Q2 earnings and full-year guidance update
- Morgan Stanley Q2 results (before the bell)
- China Q2 GDP and June activity data released overnight
- Ongoing U.S.-Iran developments around the Strait of Hormuz
