U.S. stock futures were mixed early Thursday as traders opened the fourth quarter weighing a softer inflation print against stubbornly elevated Treasury yields and a renewed climb in crude oil. Stock futures were mixed early Thursday as Wall Street gears up for the start of a new trading month against a backdrop of surging Treasury yields.
The tone follows a late reversal on Wall Street in the prior session. A late bout of swings on Wall Street erased gains fueled by softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data, with the S&P 500 capping its worst month since June, while the Nasdaq 100 edged up 0.23% ahead of Micron (MU) earnings.
Investors are heading into the new trading month with uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's next rate decision, which is scheduled for the end of October. They're also looking ahead to a fresh round of earnings reports from companies. A fresh pop in Brent crude back above $100 is adding to the cross-currents, as Chinese refiners reportedly ban October fuel exports .
Premarket Snapshot — Thursday, October 1, 2026
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7,734.25 | +0.24% |
| Dow futures | 51,193.00 | -0.17% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 30,892.50 | +0.63% |
| US 10-year yield | 5.30% | Elevated |
| WTI crude futures | $91.87 | +1.60% |
| Brent crude futures | $100.12 | +2.13% |
| Gold futures | $4,194.20 | +0.18% |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 101.86 | +0.40% |
| VIX | 16.58 | +1.47% |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $83,748.81 | -0.16% |
MarketFramework’s Positioning Edge shows an extreme bearish divergence in NQ futures. Profitable traders are only 36.6% long, implying 63.4% short, while unprofitable traders are 51.0% long and 49.0% short. That creates a 14.4-percentage-point gap in positioning, with more experienced/profitable traders leaning substantially more short even as NQ trades near 31,000.
The entry levels add another layer to the setup. Profitable traders’ average short entry is around 30,850, just above the current price, while unprofitable traders’ average long entry is near 30,788, leaving price above their entry zone. The divergence therefore suggests that the recent advance is occurring against increasingly defensive positioning among profitable traders.
US Stocks in Focus
Alphabet (GOOGL) led the premarket tape in megacap tech. Alphabet Inc Class A moved about 2% higher in premarket trading on Thursday after Google rolled out Gemini 4 Argon, a new artificial intelligence (AI) model that the company is promoting as delivering stronger coding and cybersecurity capabilities than competing offerings at lower prices.
Jefferies highlighted launch pricing of $2 per million input tokens and $10 per million output tokens, well below Anthropic's comparable models, and reiterated a buy rating on Alphabet with a $445 price target, noting the shares had declined 16% from their May 18 peak.
Micron Technology (MU) was a key mover after its post-close print, with the chipmaker's AI-driven outlook offsetting a cautionary margin note and lifting sentiment across the memory and semiconductor complex. Micron, however, was down less than a percent.
Energy names were in focus as crude extended gains. US oil prices pushed back above $92.
Accenture, McCormick & Company, and Nike are due to report their quarterly results on Thursday.
Asia: Nikkei Rockets on Chip Rally; China, Hong Kong Shut
Asia-Pacific equities ended Thursday mixed, with Japan the standout. The Nikkei 225 climbed 3.3% to 68,956.72 on chip and AI stocks, with the Tankan large manufacturers index for the third quarter coming in at 24 against a forecast of 25 and a previous reading of 22.
South Korea's KOSPI rose 1.95% to 6,971.35 after September exports jumped 83.5% year-on-year. On the other hand, the Australian, Singaporean, Indian, Indonesian and New Zealand markets ended lower.
China and Hong Kong were closed for National Day.
Europe: Weaker Open as Yields, Crude Weigh
European stocks opened Q4 on a weaker footing, with both the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 falling about 1%, pressured by rising global bond yields and elevated crude oil prices, while extending losses from September.
Macro Data Preview
The headline U.S. release of the session is the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September, due at 10:00 a.m. ET. Consensus is 55.0 versus the prior 54.6, with TradingEconomics forecasting 54.7. Analysts at Continuum Economics expect September's ISM manufacturing index to pick up to 54.8 from August's 54.6, not quite reaching July's 55.6 that was the highest since May 2022 but sustaining a clearly healthy picture.
The day also brings August construction spending, S&P Global final September US Manufacturing PMI and a few Fed speeches, while traders are also looking ahead to Friday's jobs report.
Technical Levels to Watch
The S&P 500 enters the session hugging a well-defined range. Initial support sits at 7,645–7,640, followed by the 100-day moving average near 7,555 and the Sept. 16 low of 7,507.77. Resistance is at the Sept. 22 high of 7,782.19 and then 7,816.70; 8,000 is a further target if the index breaks out of its recent range.
U.S. Treasury yields pushed to multi-year highs, with the 10-year yield reaching around 5.306%, the highest since 2002.
