U.S. stock-index futures fell Tuesday as a fresh spike in oil prices and a surge in global bond yields undercut risk appetite, with investors reacting to a bellwether earnings print from Home Depot and July housing data. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.1% at lasy check, while those on the S&P 500 fell 0.5% .
The pullback extends Monday's soft tone on Wall Street, where equities drifted as traders digested renewed Middle East risks. Donald Trump's rejection of a ceasefire extension with Iran and the continued naval blockade have kept crude bid and safe havens firm, while inflation and fiscal-deficit worries push sovereign yields to multi-year peaks on both sides of the Atlantic.
Premarket Snapshot
| Instrument | Level / Move |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7,731 (down 0.49%) |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 29,730.25 (down 1.22%) |
| Dow Jones futures | 53,546 (flat) |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.734% (up 1 basis points) |
| WTI Crude | $84.83 (up 0.53%) |
| Brent Crude | $90.97 (up 0.11%) |
| Gold (spot) | $4,449.90 /oz, (down 0.53%) |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 99.64 (flat) |
| VIX | 15.92 (up 4.81%) |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $64,121.45 (up 0.80%) |
MarketFramework's Top Traded Contracts tool shows a strong bullish bias in the E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) contract over the past seven days. Longs accounted for 65% of both winning and losing trades. This suggests traders across the performance spectrum have largely remained positioned for further upside in the benchmark index.
US Stocks in Focus
- Home Depot (HD) – The Home Depot reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.92 on revenue of $47.86 billion, while analysts expected quarterly $4.73 per share and $47.23 billion, respectively. The company also reaffirmed its full-year guidance. RBC warned Monday that shares already appear to price in a fairly rapid housing recovery, lifting its target to $343, just above Friday's $338.86 close .
- Baidu (BIDU), Toll Brothers (TOL), La-Z-Boy (LZB), Keysight (KEYS) are among the other notable Tuesday reports.
- Nvidia (NVDA) – In focus after the AI chipmaker agreed to invest as much as $105 billion to support SB Energy, a SoftBank Group subsidiary developing a major data center project in Ohio for OpenAI , a headline that rippled through Asian tech names overnight.
Asian Markets Lackluster
Asian equities ended mostly lower on Tuesday as the global bond-yield surge dented risk sentiment. The Nikkei 225 Index plunged 2.54% to 67,460.73 on Tuesday, giving back some of the previous session's gains as global bond yields surged amid persistent concerns over inflation and rising government spending. Japan's benchmark 10-year government bond yield climbed to around 2.95%, its highest level in three decades, as mounting fiscal concerns and growing expectations of an imminent Bank of Japan interest rate hike weighed on sentiment.
Notable declines came from technology and consumer stocks, including Tokyo Electron (-6.17%), Advantest (over 5%), Lasertec (-6.17%), and Fast Retailing (-2.36%).
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index edged up 0.07% to close at 25,471.15, as Tuesday's tone turned more cautious alongside the broader region.
European Early Trend
European equity markets extended their retreat from record highs as global bond yields surged amid mounting fiscal and inflation concerns across major economies, with the Eurozone 10-year sovereign bond yield climbing above 3.2%, its highest level in 15 years, while benchmark 10-year yields in Germany and France also reached multi-year highs; the moves came as oil prices advanced further on fading hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz . There are no major earnings releases in Europe on Tuesday, and in early afternoon trading, the Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 futures fell 0.46% and 0.45%, respectively .
Macro Data Preview
The US data slate is housing-heavy. Tuesday's calendar features:
- Building Permits (Jul) at 8:30 a.m. ET with an estimate of 1.380M versus 1.367M prior; Housing Starts (Jul) at 8:30 a.m. ET estimated at 1.340M versus 1.427M prior;
- Import Price Index (MoM) (Jul) estimated at 0.1% versus 0.3% prior;
- Export Price Index (MoM) (Jul) estimated at 0.2% versus -0.6% prior;
- Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul) at 9:15 a.m. ET estimated at 0.3% versus 0.1% prior; and Capacity Utilization Rate (Jul) estimated at 76.3% versus 76.1% prior .
- Pending home sales for July round out the morning.
Key Technical Levels
In commodities, gold roseto $4,417.80 an ounce on Monday up 0.85% from the previous day, holding above $4,400 after advancing for three straight sessions, supported by fading expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike following a string of weak US economic data . A sustained hold above the $4,400 pivot keeps the near-term bias constructive; a break below would open room back toward $4,120.
