The first of the labor market reports to drop this week reinforced the resilience of the labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) survey showed an uptick in job openings in April.
The JOLTS data, however, is seen as a lagging indicator of labor market activity, given the roughly five-week delay from the end of the reference month — meaning it reflects past conditions rather than the current state of the labor market.
What the Hard Numbers Say About the Labor Market
The number of job openings rose to 7.6 million in April, up from an upwardly revised 6.887 million in March, beating economist expectations of 6.860 million. Professional and business services led the gains with a 668,000 increase in job openings, while finance and insurance saw a decline of 135,000.
On the other hand, the number of hires fell by 419,000 to 5.1 million, and the hiring rate slipped to 3.2%. Total separations, including quits, layoffs, discharges, and other departures , declined by 399,000 to 5 million, with the quits rate holding steady at 1.9%.
The data takes on added significance ahead of the June 16–17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. A resilient labor market gives the Fed , which operates under the dual mandate of full employment and stable prices, limited justification to cut rates. That said, private sector activity data have been pointing to contraction in employment, adding uncertainty to the labor market outlook.
What Traders Should Expect for the Rest of the Week
- The JOLTS report will be closely followed by ADP's private payrolls report for May, due at 8:15 a.m. ET on Wednesday. Economists expect 116,000 jobs to have been added, up from 109,000 in the prior month.
- The Labor Department will release weekly jobless claims for the week ended May 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. Initial claims are expected to fall to 211,000 from 215,000 the previous week.
- The BLS will also publish its revised first-quarter productivity and costs data at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday.
- HR consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas will release its monthly job cuts report for May at 5:30 a.m. ET on Thursday.
- The closely watched monthly non-farm payrolls report is due at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. Economists expect job gains of 95,000 in May, compared to 115,000 in April. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.3%, while the annual growth rate of average hourly earnings — a key inflation gauge — is expected to ease to 3.5% from 3.6%.
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