For most of the week the Nasdaq 100 (NQ) was a chart of lower highs. A clean descending trendline off the Sept. 3 peak near 29,760 capped every bounce as rising yields and $100-plus oil dragged the index through a four-day slide to a low around 29,045, just above the 29,000 line.
Then this morning's in-line CPI, and a retreat in crude, took the pressure off. NQ ripped: it reclaimed session VWAP, the 29,291 shelf and the 200-hour average, tagged roughly 29,500, and the key event, it broke above the descending trendline that had defined the whole down move.
The break is real. The question now is the retest.
What Broke, and Why Now
The trendline mattered because it was doing a job, every rally since Sept. 3 died against it. This one didn't.
The catalyst was macro, not the index itself: August CPI matched expectations on the headline while annual core eased to 2.4%, and crude backed off its multi-month highs.
That combination did not ease the rate-hike fear behind the four-day sell-off (CME FedWatch saw rate hike probabilities increase to 83%), but it does appear that markets were already pricing in a rate hike at the Sept. 15-16 Fed meeting and the rally may be partial proof of that.
The honest caveat: this is a relief bounce recovering a down week, and it is running straight into a live Fed meeting. A broken trendline is a genuine shift in near-term structure, but it is not yet a new uptrend and it can still be a bull trap if the retest fails.
The Chart: Break First, Retest Now
The sequence is textbook. Price rejected the low near 29,045, reclaimed VWAP at 29,266.80 and the 29,291 shelf, took back the 200-period MA at 29,394.68, then spiked into and briefly through the 100-period MA at 29,455.60 to about 29,500. It is now backfilling toward 29,373, a retest of the zone it just broke through.
RSI near 57 is constructive and, importantly, not yet overbought, so there is room without an obvious exhaustion signal.
Nasdaq (NQ) One-Hour Chart, September 11, 2026
Source: TradingView
The piece that makes this level matter is confluence: the desk's recurring 29,264.75 pivot sits right on top of session VWAP (29,266.80) and just beneath the 29,291 shelf.
That stacked band is the line in the sand.
Nasdaq (NQ) M15 Chart, September 11, 2026
Source: TradingView
The Rest of the Session for NQ
While NQ holds above roughly 29,291 and VWAP, the broken trendline flips from ceiling to floor, and the constructive read stays intact, acceptance back above the 100-period MA (29,455) and today's ~29,500 high would put the 29,600–29,760 range body back in play.
Lose the 29,265–29,291 band on a closing basis, though, and the breakout is negated: that reopens the 29,045 session low and the 29,000 line, and reframes today's move as a bull trap.
The desk's standing discipline applies either way, with ES still the stronger structure and NQ the laggard, the cleaner expression is through relative strength and a hedged pair, not naked directional size into an event.
Trader Positioning Data
The MarketFramework Positioning Edge Tool shows a mild bearish divergence in NQ.
Profitable traders are net short (46% long) with an average short entry of 29,771.05 and are green; the unprofitable crowd is 51% long with an average long entry of 29,710.95 and is bleeding.
With price at 29,741, the money-makers are fading this post-CPI rip near the range highs while the crowd chases it long.
How to potentially use it: as a caution flag on the breakout, not a reversal signal. It argues for waiting on the 29,265–29,291 retest to confirm rather than chasing 29,500+. Confluence, not a trigger, the Fed still decides.
