U.S. stock index futures pointed to a mixed Friday as investors braced for the August non-farm payrolls report, the last major labor-market data point before the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting. Nasdaq futures outperformed, while Dow futures hovered edged lower, following Thursday's rally, catalyzed by dovish Fed commentary that tempered rate-hike fears.
Most Asian stocks rose Friday and government yields held their losses following Fed Governor Christopher Waller's comments that tempered fears that the central bank would hike interest rates at its meeting this month. Waller signaled that a rate hike would not be warranted if underlying inflation continues to slow, marking a shift from earlier remarks highlighting inflation risks . The relief follows a turbulent week in which the Middle East crisis sent crude surging around 10 percent, fanning inflation concerns and putting pressure on central banks to raise interest rates .
Thursday's Wall Street session set a constructive backdrop: the S&P 500 jumped 1.06% to close at 7,747.71, the Nasdaq Composite moved 1.4% higher to 26,584.06, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 624.16 points, or 1.18%, to end at 53,686.11 .
Premarket Snapshot
| Instrument | Level | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7,758.75 | +0.05% |
| Dow futures | 53,682.00 | -0.12% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 29,659.25 | +0.46% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.76% | down marginally |
| WTI crude (Oct) | $91.02 | -0.31% |
| Brent crude | $95.43 | -0.09% |
| Gold futures | $4,516.10 | -0.52% |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 99.11 | +0.21% |
| VIX | 14.22 | -0.70% |
| Bitcoin (BTC/USD) | $80,896.00 | +4.10% |
NQ's positioning is flashing an extreme bullish divergence, with profitable traders 18 percentage points more long than unprofitable traders, according to MarketFramework's Positioning Edge tool. The winners are 52% long versus just 34% for losing traders, suggesting the traders currently on the right side of the market are maintaining a bullish bias.
US Stocks in Focus
Lululemon Athletica (LULU) is the standout decliner of the session, falling about 19% in premarket trading on Friday after the sportswear maker cut its full-year forecast for a second time, underscoring the hurdles awaiting incoming CEO Heidi O'Neill . The selloff extended beyond Lululemon itself, with shares of athletic and activewear peers also declining in sympathy in pre-market hours .
Shares of companies that reported in Thursday's after-hours also moved, with Asana (ASAN) down more than 11%, Samsara (IOT) rising more than 14%, Oxford Industries falling nearly 14%, Guidewire Software (GWRE) tumbling nearly 15%, Planet Labs (PL) and Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) rising more than 10% each, and UiPath (PATH) sliding more than 9%.
Macro Data Preview
The August employment report at 8:30 a.m. ET dominates the calendar. Economists expect employment to climb by 55,000 jobs in August after a decline of 23,000 jobs in July, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.1% . The release is the last full set of employment data before the September Fed policy meeting.
The reaction function is unusually inverted this cycle. Through 2024 and 2025, weak payrolls meant cuts and a relief rally, but in September 2026, a strong August print is the hawkish outcome, and a soft one is what takes hike risk off the table .
Asian Markets Recap
Asian equities finished Friday's session broadly higher, tracking Wall Street's rebound and easing concerns about a September Fed hike. Regional bond yields held their improvement after analysts pointed to a surge in corporate borrowing to fund AI investment. The Middle East premium remained an overhang for crude, though the immediate crude spike showed signs of stabilizing.
European Open
European stocks showed tentativeness as traders await the U.S. monthly employment report for August later in the day for additional clues on the outlook for interest rates . Traders may also keep a close eye on the latest developments in the Middle East amid elevated concerns over supply disruptions . The steadier tone follows a bruising start to September for the region, with the STOXX 600 hitting a one-week low earlier in the week on the bond sell-off.
Technical Levels to Watch
- S&P 500: 7,761 area serves as immediate reference; a decisive break above Thursday's 7,747 cash close keeps the door open to fresh highs, while support sits near the 7,700 psychological level.
- Nasdaq 100 futures: 29,659 with upside pivot into the 29,700-29,800 zone; downside support near 29,400.
- US 10-year yield: Watch the 4.70%-4.75% range; a sustained move back above 4.80% would revive the bond-market anxiety that pressured equities earlier in the week.
- WTI crude: $90 is the critical support; a break lower would relieve inflation pressure, while a move back above $92 revives energy-driven yield concerns.
- Gold: Holding above $4,500 keeps the multi-month uptrend intact; a break of that level could accelerate profit-taking.
