U.S. stock futures pointed to a lower open Wednesday as investors weighed a fresh escalation between Washington and Tehran, higher oil prices and the impending release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting.
The overnight move followed a bruising session for technology names. During Tuesday's session, the Dow dropped more than 100 points after briefly reaching a record intraday high. The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.2%, with semiconductor stocks leading the decline.
Iran strikes rattle energy markets
Markets are digesting a sharp escalation in Iran tensions after American forces carried out a "series of powerful strikes" against Iran late Tuesday in response to attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Treasury Department also revoked Iran's license to sell oil internationally. Speaking at the NATO summit held in Turkey, U.S. President Donald Trump said, "the Memorandum of Understanding with Tehran “is over,” but that negotiators can “keep talking if they want."
The geopolitical shock rippled through commodity markets. The developments pushed energy prices higher, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude rising more than 5% each.
Focus turns to FOMC minutes
The main scheduled event of the U.S. session is the release of the June FOMC minutes.The Fed held the Fed Funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% in June, and that meeting carried a hawkish tone. The latest dot plot showed nine Fed officials expecting at least one rate hike before the end of 2026.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 75.9% chance of no rate change and a 24.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the July meeting. This week's minutes from the Fed's first policy meeting under Kevin Warsh as chairman will be the main highlight, with market participants watching whether Warsh's pledge to overhaul Fed communications extends to the minutes.
Bonds and dollar
Treasury yields climbed as the oil rally revived inflation concerns, with the 10-year benchmark Treasury note yielding 4.577% in early New York session, marking the highest in more than a month. On Tuesday, the 10-year note yield climbed to 4.50%, its highest level in two weeks, as a renewed rise in oil prices fueled inflation concerns after an LNG carrier was struck by a projectile while exiting the Strait of Hormuz, with market-implied odds of a rate hike as early as September rising to around 58%.
Overseas trade
Asian markets ended Wednesday's session mostly lower, weighed down by the renewed geopolitical tensions and the artificial intelligence (AI) sell-off that dragged South Korea's Kospi into a bear market. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 2.11%, and South Korea's Kospi plunged 5.35%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed nearly 3%, primarily due to the buoyancy seen in Chinese stocks listed in the exchange.
Premarket snapshot — Wednesday, July 8, 2026
| Instrument | Move | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Dow futures (YM) | -1.20% | Off record territory |
| S&P 500 futures (ES) | -0.95% | Chips weigh |
| Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ) | -1.25% | AI names under pressure |
| Russell 2000 Futures | -1.25% | rate-sensitive names drag |
| WTI crude | $74.15/+5.27% | Iran strikes, license revoked |
| Brent crude | $78.22/+5.47% | Strait of Hormuz risk |
| US 10-year yield | 4.573%/+4.4 basis points | highest since May 22 |
| Gold | $4,060.20/-2.34% | rate worries dent sentiment |
| Bitcoin | $62,040.84/-1.88% | risk aversion weighs down |
| VIX | +14.68% | risk-off mood |
Stocks to watch
- Energy stocks are in focus after oil spiked in response to the geopolitical flare-up.
- SpaceX stock was flattish in premarket after declining nearly 7% on Tuesday following its Nasdaq-100 inclusion.
- Helen of Troy (HELE) reports before the bell, while Levi Strauss (LEVI) earnings report is on tap after the market close.
Context
Wednesday's cautious tone caps a stretch of records for U.S. equities. The S&P 500 gained 0.72% Monday to end at 7,537.43, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.12% to 26,121.16 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 155.84 points, or 0.29%, for a record close of 53,055.91. The subsequent Tuesday pullback in AI-linked names, coupled with the overnight escalation with Iran, has re-centered attention on the intersection of geopolitics, energy and Fed policy heading into the New York open.
