US Stock Futures Tread Water Near Records as Empire State, BoJ Signals Take Center Stage

U.S. stock index futures were mixed in Monday's premarket session as investors braced for the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing survey and homebuilder sentiment data, with equity benchmarks entering the week within striking distance of record highs. The S&P 500 touched one record last week and three the week before, despite a sleepy stretch of summer trading.

Risk appetite is being tested by a subtle shift in rate expectations. Markets are now pricing in around a 35% chance of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September, down from 55% a week earlier, following last week's benign inflation prints and a surprise drop in July retail sales. Investors are also awaiting the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole conference later this month, as well as Nvidia earnings next week.

The dollar was steady and Treasury yields held firm at the long end after long-maturity Treasury yields swung higher on Friday amid concerns that the Federal Reserve could be complacent of higher inflation, despite the seemingly cool price data released last week. Crude was underpinned by lingering geopolitical premium, while gold hovered just off a seven-week high.

The positioning data suggests a slightly bearish bias among active Nasdaq E-mini (NQ) traders, but not an overwhelmingly one-sided market. While 55% of losing trades were short positions, only 51% of winning trades were long, indicating that profitable traders held a modest preference for the long side while unsuccessful traders leaned more heavily into bearish bets. The relatively small gap between the two groups points to a market lacking strong directional conviction, with traders split on whether the recent rally can extend further.

From a contrarian perspective, the fact that losing traders were more aggressively short than winning traders suggests bearish positioning has been somewhat crowded. That can be interpreted as a mild bullish signal for the index, as excessive short exposure can fuel upside moves through short covering if the Nasdaq continues to hold key support levels. However, the narrow spread between winners and losers also implies that sentiment is far from extreme, leaving room for upcoming macro catalysts or earnings developments to determine the next directional move.

Company-specific catalysts are thin ahead of a heavier stretch of retail earnings later in the week, but a handful of names are drawing attention in early trade. Airbnb cleared its old peak by 21% at $184.06 last week, while Cloudflare, Palo Alto Networks and Snowflake all broke out too, with Dell and Arista rounding out a leaderboard tilted toward enterprise tech — leaving those AI-adjacent names in focus for continuation trades at the open.

Chip stocks remain a key sentiment gauge. The PHLX Semiconductor Index, which descended into bear market territory down 20% from highs late last month, has forged a vigorous comeback but couldn't quite get over the hump Thursday; earlier in the session, it spent time above the 50-day moving average of 12,637 but closed below it and has been below that for a month, though it posted its highest close since July 14. A close above 12,536.99 would put the SOX into a new bull market, defined by a 20% rise from recent lows.

Intel remains on watch after shares showed volatility last week following the chipmaker's announcement of a common stock offering of $15 billion, with the company saying it plans to use the money for general corporate purposes — which could include capital expenditures and working capital.

Apple is also in view after Jefferies downgraded the stock to underperform from hold, with analysts concluding from supply-chain checks that an all-glass iPhone, something the company has never publicly announced, appears to be canceled.

Asian equities finished mixed on Monday. The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.74% at 69,220.25, but the stillness in the headline number masked a consequential policy backdrop. Reuters reported that the Bank of Japan is eyeing a rate hike as soon as September, alongside a faster pace of monetary tightening than markets had previously priced in. Exporters carry the risk if a US-Japan push against yen speculators lifts the currency further.

In Greater China, the Chinese market advanced strongly amid stimulus hopes amid a batch of disappointing economic data and Hong Kong's Hang Seng also ended up over 1.40%. Beijing signaled it will support growth without a big new stimulus package, with buyers paying up for China exposure without the policy bazooka they spent months waiting on.

European bourses opened the week on a nervous note, with regional benchmarks continuing to defy their weak seasonal script.

The Stoxx 600 has rallied 11% this year, with regional benchmarks including the German DAX, French CAC 40 and Italian FTSE MIB hitting all-time peaks. Traders are watching whether the pan-European gauge can hold above the 660 area on the STOXX 600 and 6,560 on the EURO STOXX 50, levels that marked last week's record closes.

• 8:30 a.m. ET — NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (August): consensus 10.2 vs. prior 15.6
• 10:00 a.m. ET — NAHB Housing Market Index (August): consensus 33.0 vs. prior 34.0
• 4:00 p.m. ET — TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (June): consensus $150.0B vs. prior $232.7B

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and TIC Net Long-Term Transactions, both of which will provide insights into manufacturing conditions and foreign investment flows into U.S. securities, while the NAHB Housing Market Index will offer a glimpse into homebuilder sentiment. Corporate flow is light: no major earnings or data are expected as a headline catalyst, keeping macro releases squarely in focus.

• S&P 500: The index closed Friday above 7,785; a breakout above 7,800 opens the door to psychological 7,850, while initial support sits at the 20-day near 7,720.
• Nasdaq 100: the tech-focused Nasdaq-100 has risen above its 50-day moving average, which it dropped below in July — a sustained hold keeps the uptrend intact.
• PHLX Semiconductor (SOX): 50-day MA at 12,637 is the near-term pivot; a close above 12,536.99 would technically confirm a new bull market.