U.S. stock index futures pointed higher ahead of Thursday's New York open, led by the Nasdaq 100 futures, positioning Wall Street for a rebound as the oil price rally paused; Treasury yields held near multi-month highs on the renewed U.S.-Iran tensions.
Premarket snapshot
| Instrument | Level / Move |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | +12.50 pts/ +0.17% |
| Dow futures | -6 pts / -0.01% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | +183.50 pts/ +0.62% |
| Brent crude (Sep) | $78.14 / +0.15% |
| WTI crude (Aug) | $73.55/ +0.04% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.577/ marginally higher |
| Gold | ~$4,116.40/oz/ +0.83% |
Middle East Risk keeps oil bid
Crude oil futures edged higher in the New York session, tacking onto the solid gains recorded in the previous two sessions. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for August rose 0.04% to $73.55 per barrel after prices rose more than 4% on Wednesday.
The move followed a fresh flare-up in hostilities. The U.S. Central Military Command confirmed it carried out strikes on Iran for a second straight day in an effort to curb Tehran's ability to threaten navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran vowed a large-scale retaliatory operation against US military bases in the region, and President Donald Trump said that, in his view, the ceasefire is over and warned of additional strikes on Iran along with a new blockade.
“The disruption is a reminder that the Strait never fully reopened and that the recent removal of the geopolitical risk premium may have been premature. — Saxo, research note, July 9, 2026
Yields near multi-month highs, Fed in focus
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose toward 4.60% mark on Wednesday, the highest since May, as higher energy prices magnified the impact of a hawkish Federal Reserve. US Treasury yields steadied on Thursday morning.
Rate expectations continued to shift. Traders increased their expectations for Fed rate hikes, with the implied probability of a September increase rising to around 70%, up from 58% the previous day. Minutes from the Fed's June rate-setting meeting showed that the policymakers were divided about their outlook on the interest rate trajectory. The officials also expressed growing concern about inflation, and markets continue to price in at least one Fed rate hike by the end of 2026.
Global backdrop: Europe rebounds, Asia mixed
European stocks also staged a rebound on Thursday as investors monitored renewed tensions in the Middle East, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index seen up 0.17%. France's Cac 40 and Germany's DAX gave back part of their early gains and yet traded modestly higher, while London's FTSE 100 dropped 0.2%. Tech stocks and miners led gains across the continent, while healthcare and consumer staples lagged the broader index.
In Asia, chipmakers were in focus. SK Hynix closed 5.3% higher ahead of its U.S. debut on Friday. Chinese data added a softer note: China's consumer prices grew slower than expected in June, while wholesale inflation accelerated, as elevated energy costs continued to sap domestic demand; consumer prices rose 1% year over year (YoY) in June from a year ago, missing economists' estimates of 1.1% growth in a Reuters poll, and slowing from 1.2% in May.
Commodities and the dollar
Gold reversed course after a bruising session. Gold traded up 0.83% early Thursday. Gold extended its decline to around $4,030 an ounce on Wednesday, touching its lowest level since July 2 after Trump declared the interim peace agreement with Iran "over," with his remarks sending oil prices surging more than 5%, fueling concerns that higher energy costs could stoke inflation and keep U.S. interest rates elevated.
According to MarketFramework data, a majority of profitable trades in Micro Gold futures contract (MGC) are from long contracts. Meanwhile, shorts accounted for a nearly three-fourths of the losing trades. This implies that market conditions favored upward price movements in gold, rewarding bullish strategies and penalizing bearish bets.
Stocks and catalysts to watch
- SK Hynix — Korean memory-chip giant rallied 5.3% overnight ahead of its US listing Friday, a potential tailwind for the semiconductor complex at the open.
- Energy majors — Integrated oils and E&P names in focus as Brent and WTI rally stalls.
- Rate-sensitive tech and megacaps — Nasdaq 100 futures' outperformance signals investors leaning back into growth despite the 10-year yield near 4.60%.
- Earnings — PepsiCo. (PEP) is among the companies on Thursday's U.S. earnings docket, keeping single-name volatility elevated into the open.
Data on deck
The key U.S. macro release for the session is the weekly labor-market print, i.e. the Initial jobless claims report. Traders will parse the data for any softening in the labor market that could push back against the market's growing bets on a Fed rate hike later this year.
