US stocks closed sharply higher on Thursday, the best day in about a month after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he could support holding interest rates steady this month if inflation keeps cooling.
The Dow led the way: the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.08%, ahead of the S&P 500’s 1.06% (7,747.71) and the Dow leading with 1.18%, or 624 points, to 53,686.11, the Dow’s best session since August 4.
What Drove The Move
The spark was Waller, who said he would be “inclined to support” a hold this month and sounded upbeat that price pressures are improving. That matters because markets had been pricing a real chance of a September hike not a cut under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
After his remarks, the odds of a September hike fell to 50.4% from 63.2% a day earlier, per the CME FedWatch tool, ahead of the September 15–16 meeting.
Source: CME FedWatch Tool
Bond yields eased in response, with short-dated Treasuries outperforming and the 10-year yield slipping to about 4.77%, a day after touching its highest level since November 2023. A sharp rally in the Japanese yen added to the downward pull on yields, the dollar fell to its lowest since May, and Bitcoin pushed back above $80,000.
Oil, by contrast, barely moved: WTI settled up 0.32% at $91.30, while Brent slipped 0.12% to $95.52, still high enough to keep an inflation worry ticking in the background.
Why This May Not Be The All-Clear
Two cautions kept the rally honest.
First, Waller is one voice, and his dovish lean reads as a contrast to Chair Warsh, who has signalled he is more focused on stubborn inflation than on the jobs market. As CFRA’s Sam Stovall put it, “you can’t really say that the all-clear has been signaled.”
Second, if oil stays stubbornly high, higher rates could remain a hurdle whatever the labour data shows.
The practical takeaway: Friday’s US jobs report may matter less than usual for the rate call, because Warsh has told markets that payrolls will not sway him much. A weak number probably will not move him; a strong one could reinforce his inflation concern. The heavier catalyst is next week’s August inflation print, which Waller flagged as decisive for his own vote.
Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook (NQ, 4-Hour Chart)
Here is the catch for tech bulls. Off the September 1–2 low near 28,950 (a four-session slide that had dragged NQ back below its August close) the Nasdaq 100 rebounded hard, reclaiming its 200-period moving average (29,242) and the 29,291 shelf. But it stalled right at its 100-period moving average (29,541), closing just under it near 29,510.
So even though the Nasdaq rallied, NQ is the only one of the three majors still capped by its 100-day line, both the S&P (ES) and the Dow (YM) pushed clear of theirs.
YM vs ES vs NQ, FOur Hour Chart Comparison, September 3, 2026
Source: TradingView
Momentum is improving without being stretched: the RSI has climbed to about 60 from the oversold zone where the chart’s bullish signals fired.
That leaves room to run if buyers can take back the line. The 100-MA at 29,541 is the pivot, reclaim and hold it and the path opens toward 29,600, then a look at the late-August highs and 30,000.
Reject it and NQ slips back to the 29,291 / 29,242 shelf, with the big 29,000 psychological floor beneath.
Nasdaq 100 Four-Hour Chart, September 3, 2026
Source: TradingView
The S&P (ES) Is A Step Ahead
For context, ES did clear both averages, reclaiming its 200-MA (7,654.57) and 100-MA (7,720.26) to trade near 7,750, with the 7,817.25 resistance the next cap above.
Its RSI sits around 65 and rising. That gap, ES and YM through their moving averages while NQ lags at its 100-MA, is the familiar S&P-leads/Nasdaq-lags split.
An interesting 24 hours ahead ahead for markets before the holiday weekend. Are fireworks in store for market participants?
