The Session: Hot Jobs, Softer Stocks
US stocks closed lower on Friday after the August jobs report came in far hotter than expected. Payrolls grew 162,000, roughly three times the 53,000 economists had pencilled in the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and June and July were revised higher.
A stronger labour market makes a September rate hike look more likely, so short-term Treasury yields jumped (the 2-year hit its highest since January 2025) and equities slipped.
The Dow led the falls, down 271.86 points (0.51%); the S&P 500 lost 0.38% and the Nasdaq, the most resilient of the three, eased 0.29%. Traders now price a 58% chance of a September hike, up from about 49% a day earlier.
There is a catch. The report showed little sign that the jobs market is fuelling inflation as wage pressure stayed contained so a hike is far from guaranteed. That kept Thursday's dovish signal alive in the background: Fed Governor Christopher Waller had leaned toward holding rates steady, sparking a rally that Friday's number then unwound.
President Trump piled on the political pressure, threatening to halt trade with countries the US runs a deficit with unless the Fed cuts, and arguing rates should be 1% or lower.
Under the Surface: NQ Holds, YM Lags
The indices are not moving as one. On the hourly chart, the Nasdaq (NQ) is the relative winner it sits back above both its 100- and 200-period moving averages (around 29,328 and 29,381) and is holding the 29,291 pivot, with momentum neutral (RSI near 50).
Nasdaq One-Hour Chart, September 4, 2026
Source: TradingView
The Dow (YM) is weaker: it slipped below its 200-hour average (~53,427) and is leaning on the 100-hour line (~53,247), with the hourly RSI down near 32. In short, tech was the port in the storm and the rate-sensitive Dow the soft spot, the kind of split that favors expressing a view through the stronger structure rather than betting on the whole market at once.
Key Risks Into Next Week
The Fed goes quiet this weekend, its pre-meeting blackout means no more official commentary before the decision. With policymakers silent, the data does the talking, and one report towers over the rest.
Key Events & Dates
| When | Event | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Thu, Sep 10 | US August PPI (8:30 ET) | First inflation read of the week; sets the tone going into CPI. |
| Fri, Sep 11 | US August CPI (8:30 ET) | The main event. The last major inflation data before the Fed. A hot print hardens the hike case; a soft one revives "hold" and can lift stocks. |
| All week | Fed blackout | No Fed speakers before the meeting, so CPI and PPI carry outsized weight. |
| Sep 15–16 | FOMC decision (Sep 16, 2 pm ET) | A live hike-or-hold call, the reason every data point now matters. |
| Ongoing | Trump, trade & Fed independence | Trade-halt threats and public rate demands add political risk and headline volatility. |
One near-term wrinkle: US cash markets are closed Monday for Labor Day. Index futures still reopen Sunday evening (5 pm CT), but liquidity will be thin through a shortened Monday, so weekend headlines on the Fed, Trump's trade threats or Middle East oil can move price on light volume before the first full session on Tuesday.
