Gold's PPI relief rally has already been sold. The metal popped toward $4,080 on the 8:30 ET release.
June producer prices fell 0.3% on the month against expectations for a flat reading, the first monthly decline since August 2025, with the annual rate at 5.5% versus 6.2% expected and core undershooting at 4.7% but roughly ninety minutes into the U.S. session, sellers have pressed gold back to retest the $4,040 support shelf.
Read the full sequence and the asymmetry is stark: the overnight session took gold toward two-week lows despite the IRGC declaring the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed and Trump threatening Iranian power plants and bridges next week; the second downside inflation surprise in twenty-four hours bought the metal barely an hour of relief; and now price sits lower on the session with Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s mid-testimony.
That is the real-yield transmission regime working exactly as designed — a blockade cannot lift this market, a basis point can, and the sell-on-rise structure absorbs everything in between.
Gold's has had a rollercoaster ride this week and that trend continued, as the precious metal reclaimed the $4,060/oz handle as the U.S. session progressed.
PPI Confirms the CPI — and the Rally Still Gets Sold
Wednesday's report validates Tuesday's CPI across the board: energy-led headline disinflation with a cooler core alongside it.
Yet the price action is now a pattern, not an incident. Tuesday's near-2% CPI rally to $4,080 was sold back below $4,050 within hours; Wednesday's PPI pop toward $4,070 has been sold inside ninety minutes, with the $4,075–4,100 supply zone rejecting its third approach in two sessions.
Sellers attempted pressing the $4,040 shelf, the first support on the map, with the $3,985–4,000 area behind it. However, bulls stepped in once more highlighting the growing indecision as uncertainty around the U.S.-Iran conflict rumbles on/
Two forces keep the ceiling in place: the man setting the discount rate keeps refusing to declare victory, and the oil market keeps rearming him — Goldman Sachs flagged fresh upside risks for crude on Wednesday as Gulf flows falter, precisely the pass-through channel that makes June's soft prints backward-looking.
Warsh, Day Two: Same Script, Live Risk in the Q&A
Fed Chair Warsh's prepared remarks to Senate Banking this morning are identical to Tuesday's House statement where he told the committee the FOMC has no tolerance for persistently high inflation, repeated the pledge to make the five-year inflation surge a thing of the past, and again offered no forward guidance and no dot-plot participation.
Where to Next for Gold Prices?
I wish this was an easy question to answer, but as price action has shown us over the last few days, a prolonged move in either direction at this stage looks unlikely.
Gold will remain sensitive to both data and developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict.
Gold Futures Four-Hour Chart, July 15, 2026
Source: TradingView
Looking at the charts, gold remains under pressure on the 4-hour timeframe, trading at $4,069 beneath a descending trendline, the 100-MA ($4,086) and the 200-MA ($4,218), a firmly bearish moving average structure.
Price is compressing between horizontal support at $4,044.4 and the 100-SMA overhead, with the RSI flat at 49.9, reflecting indecision after the bounce.
A 4H close above the 100-MA would target $4,150, then $4,218.
Conversely, a decisive break below $4,044.6 re-exposes the $3,975 base — and failure there opens fresh cycle lows. Bears retain control until the 100 and 200-MA gives, while short-term traders may eye a bullish continuation if price breaks above the 100-MA.
What Does Retail Trader Positioning Tell Us?
Trade Validator data on Micro Gold (MGC) shows a sharp split at the $4,040 shelf.
The profitable cohort is positioned Strong Long at 61% long versus 39% short, with an average long entry of $4,040.3 — buying the support test almost to the tick and sits at its most bullish in a month, more net long than 93% of the last 30 days.
More upside ahead or is another drop on the cards moving forward?
