U.S. equity futures pointed firmly higher before the opening bell Wednesday after President Donald Trump announced an open-ended extension of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire overnight, easing the Middle East risk premium that had battered Tuesday's regular session.
The rebound reversed a broadly negative Tuesday, when all three major averages settled lower as investors grew concerned that the U.S. and Iran would not be able to reach a peace deal by Wednesday's ceasefire expiry. The S&P 500 shed 0.63%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.59%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 293 points, or 0.59%.
Premarket Market Snapshot as of 6 a.m. ET
- S&P 500 Futures (ES): 7,136.75 |(+0.52%)
- Dow Futures (YM): 49,560.00 (+0.475%)
- Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQ): 26,825.25 (+0.72%)
- Russell 2000 Futures (RTY): 2,798.10 (+0.83%)
- WTI Crude (WTI): $90.63 (+1.07%)
- Gold: (GC) $4,772.50 (+1.12%)
- Silver (SI): $77.91 (+1.86%)
- 10-Year Yield: 4.288% (-0.004)
- EUR/USD: 1.1747 (Unchanged)
- GBP/USD: 1.3518 (+0.07%)
- USD/JPY: 159.35 (-0.01%)
- VIX: 19.10 (-2.05%)
- Bitcoin (BTC): $78,018 (+1.64%)
Trump's ceasefire extension offered temporary relief, tempering fears of imminent regional escalation, though traders remain broadly skeptical that a durable resolution will materialize in the near term. On Tuesday, the markets had come under pressure amid growing skepticism that Washington and Tehran would reach a longer-term agreement, with Trump citing difficulty dealing with a "seriously fractured" Iranian government.
Iranian officials, meanwhile, claim talks with the U.S. are a "waste of time" based on the lack of commitment to previous deals.
On commodities front, oil traders remained wary despite the ceasefire. Oil futures rebounded from their Asian session's losses, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract up 1.08% at $90.64 per barrel as of 6:10 a.m. ET, while Brent crude gained 1.23% to $99.70 per barrel. That follows Tuesday's sharp rally, when the WTI contract increased 2.81% to settle at $92.13 per barrel and Brent futures advanced 3.14% to close at $98.48 a barrel in anticipation that the ceasefire could collapse.
Precious metals, by contrast, are extending their safe-haven bid even as equities rally — an unusual combination that suggests hedging demand is still elevated. Gold is up 1.12% at roughly $4,772.50 per troy ounce and silver is 1.86% higher, a move that builds on prior strength described by regional desks as a response to sustained geopolitical and macroeconomic tensions.
Forex and Rates: Dollar Soft, Yields Edge Lower
The dollar is giving ground as risk appetite returns. The EUR/USD remained flat at 1.1747 and GBP/USD and USD/JPY are marginally lower. The backdrop for the euro remains complicated: the Governing Council of the ECB is expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its April 29-30 meeting, reflecting an ongoing commitment to 2% inflation stability amid heightened uncertainties from Middle East tensions and U.S. trade policies.
Treasury yields eased with the U.S. 10-year marginally lower at 4.286%. The marginal dip came after strength seen on Tuesday due to the political noise around the Fed. In his confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh signaled he would "absolutely not" be a "sock puppet" for Trump. Two hours of back-and-forth did little to clarify a central question for Warsh: how soon can he be confirmed?
Overseas session: Asia mixed, Europe cautious
Heading into the U.S. open, overseas tape is sending mixed signals. European desks traded mixed early Wednesday, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 up 0.11%.
In Asia, the session has been choppier. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed, with South Korea's Kospi advancing 0.46%, Japan's Nikkei 225 gaining 0.40%, mainland China's Shanghai Composite Index trading 0.52% higher, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 down 1.18%,, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declining 1.22%.
What to Watch Wednesday ahead of US session
Opportunities:
- Tech and semis momentum: The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) are both stretching their win streaks to 15 straight sessions, underscoring how relentlessly tech, especially semis, has been pushing this market higher. A softer dollar and cooler crude are supportive.
- Transports leadership: The Dow Jones Transportation Average just logged another record close and has now hit all-time highs in 8 of the last 10 sessions. Any confirmation of sustained ceasefire should extend the cyclical bid.
- AI capex theme intact: Spending for the AI buildout, which is already at a historic pace, is accelerating even faster than expected, especially for the "hyperscalers," with capital expenditure estimates out to 2030 up 25% just since October.
Risks:
- Ceasefire headline risk: The extension is unilateral and undefined; a single escalatory tweet or incident in the Gulf can reverse the overnight move in minutes.
- Oil-driven earnings pressure: United Airlines posted disappointing guidance for its current quarter and full year as rising fuel prices pressure its outlook, a template other transport and consumer names may echo this reporting season. The stock was still up over 1% in premarket trading.
- Fed succession overhang: The Warsh confirmation timeline and his hawkish balance-sheet stance could tighten financial conditions independently of the FOMC.
- Strait of Hormuz: Shipping disruptions remain the tail risk that could force WTI back above $90 and re-open the stagflation trade.
Single-stock movers to watch at the open
- Apple (AAPL) — The tech stock rebounded in premarket, rising a little under 1%, after it retreated 2.52% on Tuesday in reaction to the company’s announcement that Tim Cook will step down as CEO on Sept. 1. Year-to-date, Apple stock has underperformed the market, down 2%. Nevertheless, under Cook's watch, Apple's market cap increased roughly 24-fold to top $4 trillion.
- Adobe (ADBE) — Shares rose nearly 3.5% after the tech company's board approved a $25 billion stock repurchase program through April 2030.
- Capital One (COF) — The stock shed more than 3% after the bank posted first-quarter earnings of $4.42 per share, excluding items, and revenue of $15.23 billion.
- Tesla (TSLA): The electric-vehicle maker's stock rose less than a percent ahead of its first-quarter results, scheduled after the market close Wednesday.
