U.S. equity futures pointed lower early Tuesday as a rally in semiconductors cooled, crude oil pushed higher on renewed Middle East tensions, and traders positioned for the April Consumer Price Index report due before the opening bell.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs on Monday, with the former gaining 0.19% to 7,412.84 and the Nasdaq Composite inching up 0.1% to 26,274.13, both notching fresh intraday highs and closing highs. Meanwhile, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 95 points to 49,704.47.
Pre-Market Snapshot — 7:30 AM ET
- S&P 500 Futures: 7,405.00 (-0.43%)
- Dow Futures: 49,735.00 (-0.11%)
- Nasdaq-100 Futures: 29,156.75 (-0.91%)
- Russell 2000 Futures: 2,867.00 (-0.41%)
- VIX: 18.85 (+2.56%)
- WTI Crude Futures: $101.25 (+3.24%)
- Gold Futures: $4,701.90 (-0.57%)
- EUR/USD: 1.1744 (-0.33%)
- Bitcoin (USD): $80,630.01 (-0.69%)
Iran Ceasefire 'On Life Support,' Lifting Crude
Geopolitics remains the dominant macro driver. Oil's gains built on Monday's advance after President Trump called the month-old ceasefire between the US and Iran "unbelievably weak" and said it was "on massive life support," having already rejected what he called an "unacceptable" counterproposal from Tehran.
Crude markets extended their rally, with WTI futures jumping over 3% to more than $101 a barrel and Brent climbing more than 3% to a little over $107. Three months into the war, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill, the critical waterway's first near-complete stoppage on record.
CPI Takes Center Stage
The April CPI release is the morning's marquee event. Economists expect headline price growth to have jumped from 3.3% to 3.7%, driven by the oil shock, while core CPI, which excludes energy and food, is seen climbing to 2.7% from March's 2.6%. Wholesale inflation follows on Wednesday, with retail sales providing a read on the consumer's ability to spend through the pain.
Rates markets are leaning hawkish into the print. According to CME Group, the probability of a rate cut to 3.25–3.50% at the June meeting stands at just 2.4%, with 97.6% of market participants expecting rates to hold at 3.50–3.75%.
Overnight in Asia: Mixed Action, Kospi Tumbles
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Tuesday as investors shrugged off fresh doubts over the fragile US-Iran ceasefire. Japan was a bright spot, with the Nikkei 225 adding 0.52% to 62,742.57 and the Topix rising 0.83% to 3,872.90. South Korea's Kospi, however, pared early gains to fall 2.29% to 7,643.15 after notching a fresh record high on Monday, with the small-cap Kosdaq also dropping 2.32% to 1,179.29.
Elsewhere, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.36% to 8,670.70, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dipped 0.22% in choppy late trade, China's CSI 300 edged down 0.08% to 4,948.05, and India's Nifty 50 dropped 1.83%.
Forex: Dollar Firms, Yen Pressured Past 157
The Japanese yen weakened to around 157.5 per dollar, extending losses for a second consecutive session as the dollar strengthened on persistent inflation fears following Trump's rejection of Tehran's latest peace proposal. Japan and the US reiterated close coordination on currency policy after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama met with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Tokyo is suspected to have spent more than $63 billion intervening in FX markets to support the yen, though authorities have not confirmed the operations.
The Bank of Japan's April meeting summary indicated that policymakers are considering potential interest rate increases as early as the next meeting, as surging oil prices continue to heighten inflationary pressures.
Commodities: Gold Under Pressure
Gold retreated but has come off its low below $4,700, giving back part of last week's gains after Trump rejected Iran's peace response as "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE." Reports indicated Tehran had offered to move part of its highly enriched uranium stockpile to a third country while refusing to dismantle its nuclear facilities, leaving the diplomatic path forward murky. The hardening stance strengthened expectations that central banks may raise interest rates further to contain price pressures, a development that tends to weigh on precious metals.
Sector and Stock Watch
Energy stocks could continue to remain bid as oil extended its rally. Among single-stock catalysts, Wendy's shares rallied more than 14% after the Financial Times reported that Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund Management was looking to raise funds for a bid to take the fast food chain private.
ZoomInfo Technologies shares fell more than 36% after the company significantly lowered its full-year revenue guidance despite a first-quarter beat.
On the Calendar
- April CPI — 8:30 AM ET: Headline seen at 3.8% y/y, core at 2.7%
- US-China diplomacy: Treasury Secretary Bessent meets Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Seoul (May 12–13), ahead of President Trump's trip to Beijing to meet President Xi on May 14–15, with technology and rare earths in focus
- Earnings midweek: Cisco Systems, Applied Materials, Oklo, USA Rare Earth among reporters
