US equity futures pointed higher early Thursday as traders absorbed the opening of the high-stakes Trump-Xi summit in Beijing and braced for the April retail sales and weekly jobless claims reports, both due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Dow futures led the move, up roughly 0.80%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each advanced modestly. Treasury yields edged lower, although remaining elevated, with the 10-year trading near 4.46%.
Pre-Market Snapshot — 7:15 AM ET
- S&P 500 Futures: 7,493.50 (+0.32%)
- Dow Futures: 50,181.00 (+0.78%)
- Nasdaq-100 Futures: 29,566.25 (+0.30%)
- Russell 2000 Futures: 2,858.30 (+0.21%)
- VIX: 17.84 (-0.17%)
- WTI Crude Futures: $101.03 (+0.01%)
- Gold Futures: $4,702.50 (-0.09%)
- EUR/USD: 1.1706 (-0.04%)
- Bitcoin (USD): $79,330.65 (-1.41%)
Trump-Xi Summit Sets the Tone
President Trump met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Thursday morning, kicking off a high-stakes two-day summit running through Friday. The agenda covers trade, tariffs, Taiwan, Iran, artificial intelligence, and rare earths. Xi opened by asking whether the two sides could avoid the "Thucydides Trap."
Early readouts struck a constructive tone. The U.S. and China agreed to forge more cooperative ties, with the official Beijing readout stating the two sides had committed to developing a "constructive China-U.S. relationship of strategic stability,” a framework Beijing intends to use as a guiding principle for the next three years and beyond.
Energy featured prominently in the discussions. A White House official said both sides agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open to support the free flow of energy, and that Xi expressed interest in buying more American oil to reduce China's dependence on the Strait.
The US delegation was notable for its corporate contingent, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio alongside Tesla's Elon Musk, Apple's Tim Cook, and Nvidia's Jensen Huang.
Retail Sales Headline a Busy Data Day
The April Advance Monthly Retail Sales report lands at 8:30 a.m. ET and will be closely watched for signs of how consumers are absorbing the post-Iran-war energy shock. Continuum Economics expects headline retail sales to rise 0.5%, with a 0.9% gain ex-autos, moderating to 0.5% when autos and gasoline are stripped out.
This follows a blowout 1.7% surge in March, beating the 1.4% consensus, driven largely by a record 15.5% jump in gasoline station receipts as fuel prices spiked amid the escalating Iran conflict.
The data arrives against a hot inflation backdrop. April CPI accelerated to 3.8%, above the 3.7% consensus and the highest reading since May 2023. Wednesday's PPI also overshot, with monthly producer prices rising 1.4% and core PPI surging 1.0%, against estimates of 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Rate-cut bets have largely been priced out, with futures markets now assigning negligible odds to any 2026 reduction.
Fed Transition: Warsh Set to Take Over
The Senate voted Wednesday to confirm Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair after incumbent Jerome Powell's term expires Friday, May 15. Powell intends to remain on the Fed's Board of Governors. Warsh is viewed as more open to rate cuts than his predecessor, but the latest FOMC meeting showed three voters ready to dissent over policy-statement language, suggesting a cut still looks unlikely without meaningfully softer inflation data ahead.
Commodities: Oil Steady, Gold Slips
Crude prices firmed slightly in early trade. WTI for June traded above $101 and Brent crude for July edged up to nearly $106 a barrel, with both recovering after sharp declines in the prior session. Oil traders remain focused on the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran reportedly strengthening its control over the region while reaching agreements with Iraq and Pakistan to facilitate oil and LNG shipments.
Gold ticked lower, holding barely above the $4,700 an ounce level, while Bitcoin underperformed, dropping more than 1% as risk appetite shifted toward equities and the dollar.
Forex: Dollar Holds Gains on Yield Backdrop
The greenback held firm across the majors as Treasury yields hovered near year-to-date highs. EUR/USD traded near 1.1710, GBP/USD slipped toward 1.3515, and USD/JPY held just below the 158 handle, consistent with the broader dynamic of rising U.S. bond yields supporting dollar demand.
Overnight Global Equities
Asian markets ended Thursday’s session mixed, with Japan and China closing lower. However, tech optimism helped South Korea and Taiwan end solidly higher for the day, and in the process, the former notched up another record high. European bourses opened on the front foot, with bank and tech names leading.
Wall Street enters Thursday at fresh records. The S&P 500 rose 0.58% to a new all-time high of 7,444.25 on Wednesday, and the Nasdaq added 1.2% to close at 26,402.34, while the Dow shed 67 points to 49,693.20.
Stocks and Catalysts to Watch
Applied Materials (AMAT) — reports after the close; consensus EPS of $2.68, up ~12% year-over-year, with options pricing a ±8.7% post-earnings move
Nvidia (NVDA) — CEO Jensen Huang accompanying Trump in Beijing; any commentary on advanced-chip export rules into China is a key catalyst for the semiconductor complex
Tesla (TSLA) / Apple (AAPL) — CEOs Musk and Cook also part of the US delegation; watch for any bilateral tech agreements
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) — upgraded to outperform by Leerink Partners, price target raised to $265 from $252, implying about 18% upside
Cisco (CSCO) — Stock rallied nearly 16% in premarket following the networking giant’s quarterly results and layoff announcement.
