US stock index futures pointed to a modestly firmer open Thursday, with traders looking past a wobble in mega-cap chips to the August ISM Services PMI and weekly jobless claims for the next steer on Federal Reserve policy.
Dow futures led with premarket gains while Nasdaq 100 contracts were modestly lower, weighed by a post-earnings slide in Broadcom. E-mini S&P 500 futures tracking the S&P 500 was little changed, with a slight negative bias. The tone follows Wednesday's session, when U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 rising 0.46%, the Nasdaq 100 gaining 0.23% and the Dow adding 295 points or 0.56%. Traders took comfort from a soft labor market reading and a retreat in bond yields.
Crude oil appears poised to climb for a fourth straight session, with WTI crude above $92 and the Brent crude contract is closing in on the $97 psychological resistance. The Middle East conflict continued to aggravate, with Iran confirming that it targeted in bases in Kuwait and UAE over U.S. military support, according to Al Jazeera.
Premarket Snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures (ES) | 7,675.50 | -0.01% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ) | 7,675.50 | -0.13% |
| Dow futures (YM) | 53,172.00 | +0.10% |
| US 10-Year Yield | 4.786% | little changed |
| WTI crude (Oct) | $92.46 | +1.59% |
| Brent crude (Nov) | $97.01 | +1.44% |
| Gold futures | $4,472.70 | +1.32% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 99.21 | -0.39% |
| CBOE VIX | 15.41 | +1.38% |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $77,510.00 | +1.14% |
The latest MarketFramework positioning data shows little directional edge in NQ. Profitable traders are 50.0% long, while unprofitable traders are 52.2% long, leaving both groups broadly aligned. Overall positioning is 50.9% long, essentially neutral.
The entry levels add some context: profitable traders have an average short entry around 29,194, while unprofitable traders have an average long entry near 29,136. With NQ around 29,139, price sits between those two levels.
A decisive move above 29,194 could put profitable shorts under pressure, while a break back below 29,136 would put the average losing longs at greater risk.
US stocks in focus
Broadcom (AVGO) is the premarket headliner. Shares dropped 5% in extended trading on Wednesday after the chipmaker issued disappointing guidance for the current quarter, forecasting fourth-quarter revenue of $34.8 billion, below the $35.03 billion consensus. However, third-quarter adjusted EPS of $3.32 exceeded the $3.24 consensus and revenue of $29.59 billion topped the average analysts' estimate of $29.36 billion.Broadcom's stock fell as much as 6% after the report, with the decline narrowing to about 3.06% in Thursday's premarket session.
Semiconductor revenue more than tripled to $16.7 billion, exceeding the $15.2 billion average estimate.
Other stocks moving on Thursday's earnings reported after the bell are Snowflake (SNOW) (up over 23%), Hewlett-Packard Enterprise (HPE) (down nearly 3%), NetApp (NTAP) (down over 8%) and PVH Corp. (PVH) (up nearly 2%).
Nvidia (NVDA) remains a swing name after a sharp Wednesday move. Nvidia jumped 3.2% on Wednesday on reports it is nearing a $14 billion acquisition of AI startup Hugging Face.
On the earnings docket for Thursday are expected results from Ciena (CIEN), Campbell's Company (CPB) and Victoria's Secret (VSXY) (all before the market open) and lululemon (LULU), Asana (ASAN), Ambarella (AMBA) DocuSign (DOCU), UiPath (PATH), Zscaler (ZS), Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) and Oxford Industries (OXM) (all reporting after the close.)
Macro data preview
The main event is the ISM Services print at 10:00 a.m. ET. Consensus points to a marginal improvement to 54.2 from July's 54.1, which would reinforce the sector's resilience and offer a modest boost to confidence in the broader economy. The day's agenda also features Initial Jobless Claims for insight into labor market conditions and the S&P Global Services PMI final read. Initial jobless claims are expected at 205,000 versus 203,000 prior. Friday's nonfarm payrolls report looms large for the Fed's September meeting.
Key technical levels to watch
- S&P 500 (spot): Recently reversed from the support zone between 7,600 (former top of the May sideways range) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the July upward impulse , with upside targeting resistance at 7,765 .
- US 10-Year Yield: A sustained break above the two-year closing high near 4.81% would keep pressure on rate-sensitive growth stocks.
- WTI crude: The $90 handle remains the key inflation-risk pivot after the recent Middle East-driven rally.
- Broadcom (AVGO): $350 area is the near-term support tested last week; bulls need a reclaim of $370 to neutralize the guidance-driven fade.
Asia closes mixed as AI trade wobbles
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Thursday as regional chip proxies tracked Broadcom's after-hours slide. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was under pressure, ending the session down 0.39% at 25,213.31. Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's Kospi digested the AI-guidance disappointment, although the latter closed modestly higher.
European markets: early trend
European bourses opened on the back foot, extending a soft patch driven by the global bond selloff and elevated energy prices. Stocks in the region were lower by the mid-session. Banking stocks have provided pockets of resilience, with rate-sensitive sectors and luxury names lagging.
