U.S. stock futures pointed to a stronger open on Monday, with technology leading the rebound as easing oil prices and constructive signals from U.S.-China trade talks steadied risk appetite at the start of a week dominated by a looming Trump-Xi summit and a heavy slate of Federal Reserve speakers.
S&P 500 futures advanced 0.70% and Nasdaq 100 contracts rose 1.11% as technology stocks led gains across regions, while Treasuries climbed across the curve with bonds in Europe outperforming. A major driver was crude falling for a fourth straight day, the longest such streak in three months, while the dollar traded marginally higher. The move follows a bruising week for the blue chips: the Dow slid 1.7% last week for its worst performance since March, the S&P 500 was off about 0.1%, and only the tech-heavy Nasdaq posted a gain, up 0.7%.
Positive tone-setting came from Washington. Global stocks advanced as positive signals from U.S.-China talks supported risk appetite ahead of a meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping later this week, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent describing the preliminary discussions as "very successful," with trade and AI among the issues discussed.
Premarket Snapshot
| Instrument | Level / Move |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7,766.75 (+0.70%) |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 20,250.00 (+1.11%) |
| Dow futures | 52,476.00 (+0.76%) |
| US 10-Year Yield | 4.915% (down 4.5 bps) |
| WTI Crude (front-month) | $93.05 (-3.15%) |
| Brent Crude | $100.62 (-3.13%) |
| Gold futures | $4,389.00 (-0.81%) |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 100.30 (+0.08%) |
| VIX | 14.89 (+0.54%) |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $84,212.29 (+4.89%) |
NQ futures are showing an extreme bearish divergence on the 4-hour positioning view, according to MarketFramework's Positioning Edge tool. At 6:30, profitable traders were only 31.3% long, compared with 50% long among unprofitable traders. That 18.7-percentage-point gap means profitable traders are materially more short than the losing cohort.
The divergence is notable because profitable traders have become increasingly short as NQ pushed toward 30,600, while the unprofitable group remains relatively balanced.
US Stocks in Focus
Sector leadership is skewed toward growth and AI names. Nasdaq futures, QQQ ETF, SMH, ARKK and high-Beta Growth are all higher, signaling a persistent growth/AI risk-on bias despite some mega-cap dispersion.
- Nvidia (NVDA) — Trading firmer premarket alongside the broader semiconductor complex as AI-linked demand narratives dominate; the stock remains a bellwether for Nasdaq direction.
- Apple (AAPL) — In focus after reports that its new iPhone 18 Pro lineup saw increased lead times in its second week of orders, a demand signal watched closely by traders.
- Energy names, especially refiners under scrutiny after Valero, Marathon Petroleum, HF Sinclair and Phillips 66 have gained for six consecutive weeks as diesel crack spreads hit an all-time record; sliding crude could squeeze margins from the input side.
- Accenture (ACN) — Newsflow includes Accenture partnering with Anthropic, adding another AI-services storyline to Monday's tape.
Asian Markets
Asian equity markets began the week on a firmer footing, with many regional indices posting gains despite a still-heavy geopolitical backdrop. In Asia, South Korea's Kospi rose 1.65%, while Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 was flat. Tokyo was absent from the tape: the Japanese stock market announced a three-day closure from Monday through Wednesday on account of public holidays.
European Open
European stocks kicked off the week on the front foot. The STOXX 50 gained 1.32% and the STOXX 600 rose 1.31%by early afternoon trading, as oil's extended pullback, alleviating inflation worries. Investors were also digesting the results of state elections in Germany, where the CDU recorded a very low vote share, adding further pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has vowed to remain in office and push forward with potentially difficult reforms in Europe's largest economy.
Macro Data Preview
The U.S. calendar is thin at the start of the week but not empty. A series of economic data releases and a Federal Reserve speech are expected on Monday, including remarks Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August (8:30 a.m. ET.) The week's marquee items sit later in the schedule: Wednesday brings flash PMIs, Thursday features the SNB decision and the Trump-Xi meeting, and Friday delivers U.S. durable goods orders and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey for September.
Key Technical Levels
Futures traders enter the session with clearly drawn lines in the sand. S&P 500 E-mini futures (ES1!) opened with conviction and trade with substantial gains. 7,800 is the next immediate upside target, with strong support now established around the 7,700 mark; a hold above this level throughout will solidify the bullish bias for the U.S. cash open, while failure to maintain 7,700 would raise questions.
On the tech side, the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (NQ1!) are leading the charge, trading at over 30,240, outpacing the S&P 500's gains.
What Could Derail the Rebound
The market enters the week with a better tone, but the foundations of the rally remain fragile: lower oil, progress in U.S.-China talks and improved Hormuz flows are giving risk assets some breathing space, yet geopolitical risk, elevated inflation uncertainty and heavy government borrowing remain in place, and the real test will come when the U.S. market opens
