U.S. equity futures were higher in premarket trade Friday, potentially extending post-FOMC gains from the previous session, after the Bank of Japan followed with a widely anticipated increase of its own. Nasdaq 100 futures led the tape with a gain of about 0.41%, while S&P 500 futures were 0.15% higher and Dow futures ticked marginally lower, pointing to a cautious but constructive open on the last trading day of a central-bank-heavy week.
The backdrop remains defined by Wednesday's Fed decision. Following the first Federal Reserve rate hike in more than three years, the Fed telegraphed another hike before year-end. Equities whipsawed in response, with the Dow dropping 631 points earlier in the week before Thursday's rebound on lower oil and yields.
Premarket snapshot
US Premarket Snapshot
| Instrument | Level / Move |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7,719.00 (+0.15%) |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 29,864.25 (+0.41%) |
| Dow futures | 52,247.00 (+0.05%) |
| US 10-year yield | 4.959% (+1.2 bps) |
| WTI crude | $96.22 (-1.04%) |
| Brent crude | $103.17 (-1.57%) |
| Gold futures | $4,418.40 (+0.43%) |
| DXY | 100.36 (+0.11%) |
| VIX | 15.35 (-0.58%) |
| Bitcoin | $78,203.44 (+2.45%) |
MarketFramework's Positioning Edge tool shows a mild bullish divergence in NQ positions, with profitable traders holding a 50% long position compared with 45.9% among unprofitable traders. While the overall split remains relatively balanced at 47.5% long, the stronger long bias among profitable traders suggests relatively better-performing participants are leaning toward the upside. With NQ around 29,850 and both groups showing an average long entry near 29,822, holding above that level could reinforce the constructive positioning signal, while a break below it would weaken the setup.
US stocks in focus
Tech stocks continue to remain in favor, as reflected by the premarket gains in mega-cap names and chipmakers.
Crypto-linked names also found buying interest, tracking the gain in Bitcoin, which reclaimed the $78K level.
Asia: BOJ hikes to 30-year high
Friday's Asian session was dominated by the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995, quickening the BOJ's rate hike cycle since it started monetary policy normalization in March 2024, with the rise taking place three months from the BOJ's last hike, as compared to six months previously. The decision was split 7-2, with board members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato dissenting from the hike; the BOJ said the move was because of a risk that inflation will deviate upward to beyond its 2% target.
Market reaction was contained. The yen traded at 156.64 after the decision, weakening 0.45%, while the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield fell 4.9 basis points to 2.947%. While addressing a press conference BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda said the pace of rate hikes (a bigger hike or back-to-back hikes) depend on whether Japan sees big inflation risks, or inflation overshoots target.
“Underlying inflation hasn't exceeded 2% yet, and we want to keep it that way. That's why we'd like to act pre-emptively. That way, we can avoid being forced to raise rates sharply and cause unintended consequences to the economy."
On the currency market, Ueda said, "We guide policy looking at how currency market volatility could affect domestic inflation. We don't guide policy to control currency moves or stabilise currency rates at a certain range."
While Japan's Nikkei 225 average advanced 1.38% to 65,018.95, China's Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.94% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.60%. South Korea's Kospi and Taiwan's Taiex Index soared about 2% each, tracking the gains in U.S. stocks. On the other hand, the Malaysian, Indonesian, Singaporean and New Zealand markets settled lower.
Europe: Mid-day trend
European bourses traded moderately lower by early afternoon trading on Friday as traders took profits after Thursday's rally. Traders also reacted to more central bank tightening, this time from the BoJ, and also the drop in crude prices for a third straight session.
Macro preview
The domestic data slate is light but not empty. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index is scheduled for release at 10 a.m. ET. Context from the prior print: the LEI for the US increased by 0.2% in July to 99.5, after an upwardly revised decline of 0.1% in June, taking the six-month growth rate to a positive 0.2% between January and July 2026.
Also on tap: August industrial production numbers, which will be watched alongside residual Fed commentary for signals on the pace of the next hike.
Levels to watch
- US 10-year Treasury: The benchmark 10-year yield was last at 4.96%, keeping the 5% psychological line the key upside marker.
- Fed funds futures pricing: Bets among fed funds futures traders that the central bank would raise rates in a few weeks was at 55.4%, keeping the possibility of a back-to-back hike very much open.
