U.S. stock index futures were mixed early Thursday as traders opened the fourth quarter against a backdrop of surging global bond yields, firmer oil and a flurry of corporate catalysts. Nasdaq futures were up 0.6%, S&P 500 futures were flat and Dow futures were down 0.4% in early premarket trade, with AI-linked names doing the heavy lifting.
The move follows a session in which the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit an intraday high of 5.344% to reach its highest level going back to 2002, and the 30-year bond yield also scaled to levels not seen in 24 years. Rate pressure is being compounded by crude strength, with Brent near US$98.15 a barrel in early Asian trade on 1 October as talks between Washington and Tehran stalled.
Macro Data Preview
The economic calendar is front-loaded. Initial Jobless Claims are due at 7:30 AM ET with a forecast of 201K versus a prior 197K, followed by the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 9:00 AM ET, forecast at 54.8 against a prior 54.6. Continuing Jobless Claims are expected at 1,730K versus 1,719K previously. A hotter-than-expected ISM print would risk re-pricing the near-term Fed path and extending the move at the long end of the curve.
Premarket Snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7,665 | Flat |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | — | +0.6% |
| Dow futures | — | -0.4% |
| US 10-Yr Yield | 5.33% | +4 bps |
| WTI Crude (front-month) | $88.90 | -1.0% |
| Brent Crude (front-month) | $96.70 / ~$98.15 Asia hrs | -1.4% |
| Gold futures | $4,204.30 | +0.4% |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | Firmer vs. EUR, JPY | USD/JPY 158.33 (+0.6%) |
| VIX | 16.39 | +0.31% |
| Bitcoin | — | Steady |
As of approximately 7:30 AM ET, Thursday, October 1, 2026
US Stocks in Focus
Alphabet moved 2% higher after unveiling its most advanced artificial intelligence model yet, Gemini 4 Argon. Accenture soared 17% following its fiscal fourth-quarter results, with revenue of $18.68 billion exceeding the company's guidance of $17.75 billion to $18.4 billion, as well as FactSet's consensus estimate of $18.3 billion, and earnings of $3.29 per share also topping expectations. Public.com data pegged the stock at $215.07 in the pre-market session.
Vicor shares jumped roughly 12% after the company raised its third-quarter revenue growth guidance to more than 30% from its previous guidance of at least 20%, due to increased royalties from its previously announced first non-exclusive license to Vertical Power Delivery. Cognizant Technology Solutions climbed 7.07%, largely following Accenture's financial results.
In chips, Micron shares were little changed in premarket after FQ4 revenue of $54.23 billion, non-GAAP diluted EPS of $33.42 and FY26 revenue of $133.19 billion, with FQ1-27 guidance for revenue of $61.5 billion ± $1.5 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $38.15 ± $1.00 and non-GAAP gross margin of about 86.25%. On the downside, Corteva tumbled 81.43% after completing the corporate spin-off of its seed and genetics business into a newly independent, publicly traded entity called Vylor. Nike was choppy ahead of its post-close fiscal Q1 2027 print.
Asia: Nikkei Rockets, China and Hong Kong Shut
Asian trade was defined by a two-way split against the backdrop of regional holidays. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 3.30% to 68,956.72, its highest close since 17 August, led by chip stocks after Micron's results. The Kospi rose 1.95% to 6,971.35 on the day, its biggest gain since 18 September, though it closed 23.5% below its 22 June peak, according to EODHD data.
Mainland Chinese and Hong Kong markets were offline. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges are closed from Thursday 1 October to Wednesday 7 October 2026 for China's National Day holiday, and trading is scheduled to resume on Thursday 8 October, while Hong Kong's stock market is closed on Thursday 1 October 2026 for National Day, with the Hang Seng Index staying at Wednesday's 24,613.27 close; when trading resumes on Friday it will do so without mainland investors, as Stock Connect remains suspended until 8 October. Elsewhere, the ASX 200 decreased 174.90 points or -1.99% to 8,614.40 and India's Sensex decreased 570.59 points or -0.79% to 71,909.70.
Europe: Risk-Off at the Q4 Open
European equities opened in the red as rising global yields weighed on rate-sensitive sectors. At the 3:00 AM ET open, the DAX was off 0.58% and the CAC 40 was down 0.13%, while London's FTSE 100 opened essentially unchanged near 14,065. Europe's two biggest equity markets were moving in opposite directions at the Q4 open, with Frankfurt showing more conviction to the downside while Paris was barely in the red.
Key Technical Levels to Watch
- S&P 500: Spot cash reference 7,666.45 close on Sep. 30; the index is holding above the psychologically important 7,650 pivot. A break lower opens the door to a retest of the 7,600 handle.
- 10-Year Treasury Yield: 5.344% intraday peak now acts as near-term resistance; a close back below 5.25% would ease pressure on duration-sensitive equities.
- Brent crude: $98 is the line in the sand — a decisive push through would put triple digits in play and amplify inflation anxieties.
- DAX: Breaking the 25,199–25,211 zone from Wednesday's close risks accelerating the pullback toward 25,000.
- VIX: 16.39 remains contained, but any sustained move above 18 would signal a shift in risk tone as earnings season approaches.
