US Stock Futures Rebound From Fed-Day Rout as Microsoft Soars, Meta Slides

U.S. equity futures pointed to a firmer open Thursday as investors sifted through a heavy slate of Big Tech earnings and looked past the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates a day earlier.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.29%, S&P 500 futures advanced 0.47%, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.97%. The bounce comes after a brutal Wednesday session in which the Dow dropped 1,153.18 points, or 2.19%, marking the blue chip index's worst decline since April 2025, the S&P 500 slid 1.52%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.74%, ending the session more than 10% off its intraday record.

The bond market remains the pain point. Traders continue to digest the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady on Wednesday as the bond market revolts, sending the 30-year Treasury yield to a multidecade high of 5.20%. Markets also continued to assess the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, although three FOMC members voted in favor of a rate hike.

Big Tech is driving the premarket tape after a split verdict from the hyperscalers. Meta shares fell over 8% in premarket trading, extending their historic losing streak, after the tech giant's earnings miss added to worries about its ability to recoup AI investments. The company posted earnings per share of $6.18 for the latest quarter, missing analysts' estimates by $1.04 per share, and forecasted third quarter revenue between $61 billion and $64 billion, the lower end of which is lighter than the $63.15 billion estimated by analysts.

Microsoft soared 8.6% in premarket after the software maker disclosed strong fiscal fourth-quarter revenue and called for steady 2026 capital expenditures. The company reported quarterly revenue of $90.01 billion, topping estimates of $87.62 billion, with Azure growth of 43% at constant currency beating StreetAccount estimates of 40.2%. The company said Azure revenue in the 2026 fiscal year surpassed $100 billion for the first time.

• Starbucks: Shares jumped nearly 6% after the company raised its full-year outlook and reported growth in same-store sales of 7.9%, with earnings of 85 cents per share on an adjusted basis, beating analysts' estimates of 66 cents per share.
• Robinhood: Reported second-quarter EPS of 62 cents, beating estimates of 42 cents, while revenue rose 32% year-over-year to $1.31 billion, topping the $1.28 billion consensus, with funded customers increasing to 28.4 million and platform assets climbing 32% to $369 billion.
• Chipotle: Shares climbed nearly 5% to $35.88 in premarket following earnings reported after the close.
• Qualcomm and Arm: Qualcomm posted revenue ahead of Wall Street's target but missed on adjusted earnings, with investors focused on the earnings miss and cautious near-term tone. Arm Holdings shares pulled back in premarket despite a first-quarter beat.
• Chip complex is in focus following steep declines in recent sessions amid concerns that AI-related capital spending has become excessive, with Nvidia falling 3.5%, Micron losing 9.9%, AMD dropping 5.5%, and Applied Materials sliding 8.4% in Wednesday's session.
• Coming after the bell: Amazon is the next hyperscaler to face Wall Street scrutiny on its capital expenditures and cloud business when it reports earnings after the bell, and Apple will also release results, where the focus will be on margins amid memory chip price hikes.

The economic docket is dense. July 30 brings the Q2 GDP first estimate, June PCE prices, June core PCE prices, and June personal spending and personal income. Traders will also be watching for weekly jobless claims.The core PCE print is the marquee release for a Fed that just held rates in the face of dissents pushing for a hike.

Asia-Pacific trade was uneven on Thursday, with the semiconductor complex the clear pressure point. South Korea's Kospi fell 1.23%, extending its losses after falling more than 16% over the past two days. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 0.71% higher, Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.78%, and mainland China's CSI 300 closed 1.10% lower.

European equities opened on a mixed footing as the region digested U.S. policy signals alongside a heavy earnings calendar. Under the impact of the U.S. Federal Reserve's key interest rate decision, which came as expected, and a large batch of quarterly results, the DAX edged lower in early trading on Thursday. Adidas was a standout drag, falling more than 17% in Frankfurt. On the other hand, the STOXX 50 climbed 0.47%.

On Wednesday, the STOXX 50 fell 0.5%, while the broader STOXX 600 edged 0.1% lower, as investors assessed a fresh batch of corporate earnings ahead of the Fed's policy decision, while renewed Middle East tensions weighed on sentiment.

Chart watchers are focused on the Nasdaq's correction line and nearby support. The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) ended Wednesday's session more than 10% off its intraday record , formally putting the index in correction territory. Nevertheless, the Nasdaq is in a rising trend channel in the medium long term, indicating good development for the market, with support at 26,500 and resistance at 28,200. For rates, the 30-year Treasury yield's multi-decade high of 5.20% is the level bulls will need to see reclaimed on the downside to ease pressure on long-duration equities.

Retail traders in NQ futures are net long overall, according to MarketFramework's Positioning Edge tool. However, the split between winning and losing trades tells a more nuanced story. Among profitable trades, only 47.4% were long — meaning the majority of winning trades (52.6%) were actually short positions. Among unprofitable trades, the picture flips sharply: 65.5% were long. In other words, long positions are heavily overrepresented in the losing bucket and underrepresented in the winning bucket.

This pattern suggests that the "crowd" (retail longs) has been on the wrong side of recent price action — likely because they kept buying dips or chasing momentum during a period where the index was actually range-bound, pulling back, or not trending strongly enough to reward long exposure, while the smaller cohort willing to go short capitalized on those moves. It is a signal that "follow the crowd" positioning hasn't been paying off lately in this contract.