U.S. stock futures pushed higher in choppy premarket trade Monday as investors weighed a fresh round of U.S.-Iran military exchanges against tentative signs of diplomatic engagement, with oil prices swinging and Treasury yields ticking up. The move follows a bruising week on Wall Street, in which the S&P 500 lost 1.55% to end at 7,457.69, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.9% to 25,520.24, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 406.55 points, or 0.9%, to close at 52,146.42.
Sentiment steadied overnight after the U.S. completed its ninth consecutive day of strikes on Iran, but investor sentiment improved by midmorning in London after Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei lifted hopes for a diplomatic settlement, telling reporters that intermediaries had continued to exchange messages with Iran and that negotiations between the two adversaries could be pursued based on national interests.
Premarket snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7,518.50 | +0.28% |
| Nasdaq-100 futures | 28,933.50 | +0.55% |
| Dow Jones futures | 52,491.00 | +0.22% |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 4.562% | +2.1 bps |
| WTI crude futures | $81.33 | -0.55% |
| Brent crude futures | $88.18 | +0.10% |
| Gold futures | $4,025.20 | +0.16% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 100.79 | +0.02% |
| CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) | 18.36 | +2.18% |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 64,305.71 | -0.38% |
Oil, which surged Friday on the intensifying Middle East conflict, fluctuated in early Monday trade and was last found trading moderately lower. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 4.5% to settle at $82.49 per barrel Friday, while international benchmark Brent crude futures advanced 4.6% to close at $88.10. A fragile truce reached last month has fractured, once again disrupting energy flows through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, which typically handles around 20% of the world's oil traffic.
US Stocks in Focus
Alibaba (BABA) — Alibaba shares rose more than 3.50% on Monday following the preview launch of its flagship Qwen 3.8 Max model on Sunday. The Chinese tech giant described the new model, which features 2.4 trillion parameters, as matching top-tier frontier AI systems and ranking second only to Anthropic's Claude Fable 5, adding that a preview is now available through its Token Plan, Qoder, and QoderWork platforms.
Chip stocks — Semiconductor names are in focus after another sharp weekly decline. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) posted its third weekly decline in four weeks, dropping almost 9% in the period. Semiconductors were hit especially hard last Friday after Chinese startup Moonshot AI unveiled a new model that it said narrows the gap with the top offerings in the U.S.
Verizon (VZ) — Investors are positioning ahead of the telecom giant's earnings later this week. Verizon Communications Inc. stock may move 3.9% when the company releases its earnings on July 24 before the market opens, based on options data compiled by Bloomberg. The stock has been under pressure after a wave of restructuring announcements, including a plan to sell 274 of its stores around the US and cut roughly 500 corporate jobs as part of a broader restructuring program, affecting around 3,000 of the company's retail and corporate employees.
Meta Platforms (META) — Hyperscaler Meta is in talks to rent computing power to artificial intelligence giant Anthropic, according to a New York Times report. Three people with knowledge of the situation told the Times that Anthropic proposed the deal in June, and that the agreement could be worth as much as $10 billion. The people added talks are in early stages and may not yield a deal.
Asian markets mixed as tech sentiment stabilizes
Asia-Pacific equities traded in mixed fashion Monday, with Hong Kong leading regional gains. The Hang Seng Index rose 2.36% to 25,143.05. Technical readings suggest broader caution across the region. The Japanese market remained closed for the Marine Day public holiday.
Australia's benchmark also remains under pressure, with the S&P/ASX 200 within an approximate horizontal trend channel in the medium long term, indicating investors are uncertain and waiting for signals of further direction, with a break upwards a positive signal and a break downwards a negative signal.
What to watch
- Earnings calendar: July 20: AMC Entertainment, Domino's Pizza, Steel Dynamics and Zions Bancorp are slated to report Monday, with the earnings flow picking up momentum over the course of the week.
- Middle East diplomacy: markets tracking whether Iranian-US backchannel messages translate into formal talks.
- AI and chip sentiment: reaction to Alibaba's Qwen 3.8 Max preview and potential recovery in the chip space following last week's sell-off
- U.S. leading index for June, which is expected to edge up 0.1% month over month.
- Three- and six-month Treasury auction results
- Rate expectations: the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 July 2026.
- U.K. political transition: Andy Burnham takes over from Keir Starmer as UK prime minister on Monday, becoming the country's fifth leader in just four years, with attention turning to his cabinet appointments, including the all-important choice for finance minister.
