U.S. stock futures pointed to a lackluster open Thursday as global bond yields eased and investors digested a heavy slate of retail and industrial earnings led by Walmart and Deere.
The mixed sentiment comes after a modestly positive close on Thursday after the U.S. government moved to rein in long-term borrowing costs by expanding its buyback program. The U.S. Treasury Department announced it would more than double repurchases of 10-, 20- and 30-year debt over the coming months after the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield surged to its highest level since 2007 earlier this week.
Premarket Snapshot
Cross-asset snapshot ahead of the New York open
| Instrument | Level | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7,727 | -0.03% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 29,505.50 | -0.03% |
| Dow futures | 53,429. | -0.19% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.68% | +2.7 bps |
| WTI crude | $86.85 | +2.92% |
| Brent crude | $93.97 | +2.56% |
| Gold futures | $4,542.80 | -0.06% |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 98.71 | -0.13% |
| VIX | 15.13 | +1.61% |
| Bitcoin | $71,906.55 | +11.58% |
MarketFramework's Top Traded Contracts data points to a bearish tilt in E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) sentiment over the past seven days. While 57% of profitable traders held long positions, long exposure was even more pronounced among losing traders, with 66% positioned on the long side. The disparity suggests that bullish bets have been more concentrated among unprofitable participants, a contrarian signal that leans bearish for ES in the near term.
US Stocks in Focus
Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) reported quarterly earnings of 81 cents per share on revenue of $187.94 billion before the opening bell, ahead of the consensus estimates of 81 cents and $186.77, respectively Walmart shares fell more than 6% in early reaction. The third-quarter guidance was below estimates, although the company upped the fiscal year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance.
Options markets had braced for a sizable move: a swing around 4.6% on the earnings date, according to options data compiled by Bloomberg.
In the industrial complex, Deere & Co. (NYSE:DE) reported fiscal year 2026 third-quarter earnings of $5.10 per share and net sales of $11 billion, exceeding the consensus estimates. The company also raised its net income guidance for the fiscal year 2026. Shares rose more than 3% in premarket.
Beauty and consumer names are also on the move. Coty Inc. (NYSE:COTY) posted mixed results for the fourth quarter after Wednesday's closing bell. Coty reported quarterly losses of two cents per share, which missed the consensus estimate for a loss of one cent. Quarterly revenue of $1.27 billion beat the Street estimate of $1.19 billion by 6.25%. Coty shares dipped nearly 11% in the premarket session.
On the industrials tape, Nordson Corp. (NASDAQ:NDSN) reported better-than-expected third-quarter financial results and raised its FY26 guidance. Nordson reported quarterly earnings of $3.25 per share, which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $3.10 per share.
Other names to watch include Alibaba, NetEase and Ross Stores, all slated to report.
Asian Markets Close Higher
Asia-Pacific benchmarks rallied broadly Thursday as the yield reprieve rippled across the region. South Korea's KOSPI surged around 6% as chipmakers rebounded sharply, while Japan's Nikkei gained 1.36%. Shares in Australia, China and Hong Kong also advanced.
The rates backdrop cooperated across the region: Sovereign yields across major Asian economies also eased, with Japan's 10-year yield retreating from a 30-year high to around 2.84%. On the data front, Japan's trade deficit widened sharply in July as imports surged to a record high on increased crude oil purchases.
European Early Trend
European equities were lower across the board in early afternoon trading. Some of the weakness reflected caution after the major averages from the region, namely the EURO STOXX 50, German DAX and French CAC 40 all remaining close to their peak, despite August historically being one of Europe's weakest months for equities.
Positioning remains broad: About 75% of the Stoxx 600's constituents are trading above their 200-day moving average, near the top of the range of the past decade, underscoring the breadth of the advance.
Commodities and Rates
Crude oil extended a weekly climb, supported by heightened uncertainty in the Middle East as the U.S. and Iran remain at an impasse. Gold held most of its recent bounce even. U.S. Treasury yields reversed course after retreating sharply on Thursday after the government moved to rein-in long-term borrowing costs.
Technical Levels to Watch
- Walmart (WMT): Technical indicators show the stock rebounding from $107 support, facing resistance near $118. A close above resistance would unwind July's death-cross signal.
- Walmart downside marker: The downside scenario implied by options pricing points to roughly 4.28% lower, with $110.54 as the implied floor if results disappoint.
- Gold: The $4,500/oz handle is the immediate pivot after Wednesday's surge; a break lower opens room toward last week's base.
Macro Data Preview
The economic calendar is light but rate-sensitive. Weekly initial jobless claims are due before the bell, with the consensus looking for a modest tick up from the prior week's 209,000. The Philadelphia Fed's regional business conditions index is also due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Investors will also parse the Conference Board Leading Indicators for July reading later in the morning.
