U.S. stock futures pointed modestly higher ahead of Thursday's open as traders positioned for July producer price data and weekly jobless claims, a day after an in-line consumer inflation print titled the scales in favor of a pause decision in September.
Crude oil reversed course on softer demand forecasts. The International Energy Agency expects global oil consumption to contract by 1.6 million barrels per day this year, while OPEC lowered its 2026 demand-growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day. Commercial crude stocks rose by 17.4 million barrels in the week ended August 7, the biggest weekly increase since January 2023 and significantly above expectations for a 1.4-million-barrel decline.
Premarket Snapshot
| Instrument | Level / Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures (E-mini) | 7,784.25 | +0.18% |
| Nasdaq-100 futures | 29,877 | +0.08% |
| Dow futures | 53,981 | +0.20% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.67% | down 2.2 bps |
| WTI crude | $81.82 | -1.74% |
| Brent crude | $87.47 | -1.70% |
| Gold futures | $4,443.50 | -0.54% |
| Dollar index (DXY) | Softer | Lower |
| VIX | 14.61 | +0.41% |
| Bitcoin | $63,551.35 | -0.82% |
For the S&P 500 E-mini futures (ES), MarketFramework’s Positioning Edge tool shows a notable divergence between profitable and unprofitable traders. Profitable traders are significantly more bullish, with 88.9% of their positions currently long, while unprofitable traders are 61.1% long. Overall retail positioning remains heavily skewed to the long side, with 70.4% of all traders holding bullish bets.
This positioning backdrop can be interpreted as a contrarian signal. The fact that the more successful cohort is overwhelmingly short while the broader retail crowd remains net long suggests growing skepticism among experienced traders toward the recent rally. If equity indices continue pushing toward record highs, crowded long positioning among less profitable traders could leave the market vulnerable to sharp sentiment shifts, while the profitable traders' bearish stance points to expectations of either a pullback or a period of consolidation.
Macro data preview
The 8:30 a.m. ET tape carries the week's final major inflation input. Producer prices are expected to rise 0.2% month-on-month, following a 0.3% decline previously. On a YoY basis, PPI is expected to increase 4.9%, down from 5.5%. Core PPI is expected to rise 0.3% MoM, compared with 0.2% previously. The YoY rate is expected at 4.2%, easing from 4.7%.
Alongside PPI, initial jobless claims are seen at 202,000 vs. 199,000 prior, and continuing claims at 1.80 million versus 1.801 million. With July payrolls printing 23,000, the labor side of the Fed's dilemma carries as much weight as the inflation side. The 30-year Treasury auction closes out the refunding at 1:00 p.m. ET.
US stocks in focus
Cisco Systems (CSCO) — Shares fell nearly 6% to $118.71 in premarket after the networking giant's fiscal Q4 print. Cisco guided for fiscal year 2027 revenue of $72.2 billion to $73.4 billion versus estimates of $68.69 billion. The company also guided for full-year adjusted earnings of $5.05 to $5.11 per share, versus estimates of $4.80 per share. Cisco declined despite beating estimates and raising guidance.
Cerebras Systems (CBRS) and Virgin Galactic (SPCE) — Cerebras shares fell after a major earnings miss despite growth; Virgin Galactic dropped on commercial delay despite strong demand.
Applied Materials (AMAT) — Applied Materials shares gained 1% premarket ahead of its results due after Thursday's close, where Wall Street expects quarterly earnings of $3.39 per share on revenue of $9.00 billion. JD.com is also on watch, with the Chinese e-commerce group set to report before the bell.
Asia Ends Mixed
Asian markets had a mixed session, with the South Korea's KOSPI jumping 3.5%, while Japan's Nikkei gained 1.6%. The Nikkei 225 settled at 68,308.59 (+1.16%), while the Hang Seng at 25,396.51 (-0.17%) and the SSE Composite at 3,926.96 (-0.50%). The mixed sentiment came despite the positive U.S. inflation report, which however, did not give decisive clues on the interest rate trajectory.
Europe Mostly Higher
European equities mostly advance, although the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index bucked the uptrend. That said, early moves in the DAX, CAC 40 and FTSE 100 were subdued as traders awaited the U.S. PPI print and further guidance from late-season corporate earnings.
Key technical levels to watch
The S&P 500 sits within striking distance of record territory. The index closed at 7,748.50 on Wednesday, up 0.26% for the session but still only about 0.4% below the August 5 record high of 7,793.68 The index has gained approximately 4.2% since July 27 and about 12.7% since the start of 2026. Resistance sits at 7,795, then 7,850 and 7,900. Nearest support is at 7,700-7,690 (local support). The S&P 500 remains technically constructive because the index is holding near record highs, with a high and tight price pattern, and above its rising 50-day moving average.
