U.S. stock futures pointed to a mixed open on Monday following S&P 500's record run last week, with traders weighing a fresh leg higher in crude oil against a critical U.S. inflation checkpoint due later in the week. After July payrolls released last Friday pushed back expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike, the S&P 500 and the Dow set another record, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.30%, although finishing off its all-time highs scaled on June 1.
The cautious tone reflects lingering Middle East risk. Sentiment remained fragile amid fading hopes for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran saying talks with Oman were approaching an agreement but denying direct negotiations with the U.S., despite Washington's claims that a deal was close.
As far as rate outlook is concerned, the markets now see roughly a 44% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September, down from 67% a week earlier.
Premarket Snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7,789.75 | +0.13% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 29,944 | +0.37% |
| Dow Jones futures | 54,136 | -0.03% |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 4.66% | +2 bps |
| WTI crude (Sep) | $78.80 | +0.79% |
| Brent crude | $84.29 | +0.89% |
| Gold futures | $4,402.60/oz | +0.07% |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 99.70 | +0.16% |
| VIX | 15.45 | +3.69% |
| Bitcoin | $64,957.45 | +0.08% |
Nasdaq E-mini futures (NQ) continue to show a constructive positioning backdrop, with profitable traders holding a 55% net-long exposure compared with 50% among unprofitable traders, according to MarketFramework's Positioning Edge tool. The positioning spread remains positive at +5%, indicating that traders who have recently been on the right side of the market are maintaining a modest bullish bias.
While the divergence is not extreme, it aligns with the tool's "mild bullish divergence" signal, suggesting that buying interest remains intact despite recent price fluctuations. With both cohorts broadly balanced and average long entries clustered around 29,906, positioning does not appear stretched, leaving room for further upside if macro catalysts or earnings-related momentum continue to support risk sentiment.
US Stocks in Focus
Corporate news and positioning ahead of a heavy earnings week are driving early moves in individual names.
- Palantir Technologies (PLTR) – Trading at around $169 in premarket, down 1.61% from its previous close of $172.01, as traders take profit after last week's earnings-driven surge.
- Applied Materials (AMAT), Cisco (CSCO), CoreWeave (CRWV) – In focus ahead of results this week; earnings from major AI-related companies, including Applied Materials, Cisco and CoreWeave, are due this week.
- Coherent (COHR) – Coherent has traded green for 7 straight days, reclaimed its 200-day moving average, and broken out of its trend channel heading into its earnings release.
- SPY, GLD ETFs – Continue to attract inflows after SPY and GLD led a $15.3 billion ETF inflow surge as investors piled into U.S. equities and gold, while semiconductor ETFs saw notable outflows.
Asia Rallies, Led by Tokyo
Asian equities were broadly firmer on Monday, taking the baton from Friday's Wall Street rally. Shares were mostly higher across Asia, with Japan's Nikkei 225 leading advances after stocks rose on Wall Street, with the Nikkei jumping 2.1% to 66,970.22, pulled higher by strong gains for technology companies. Chip-related names spearheaded the move in Tokyo.
Chinese data released Saturday set the tone for the region. Chinese CPI came in at -0.1% month-on-month for July versus 0.2% expected, and 0.5% year-on-year versus 0.8% expected, while PPI printed at -3.5% year-on-year versus -3.9% expected. China also issued a red alert in preparation for approaching Typhoon Dolphin, with more than 1,000 flights cancelled and some rail services suspended.
Europe: Subdued Open
European equity markets traded in a subdued manner on Monday as investors assessed lingering uncertainty over efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, keeping inflation risks and the interest rate outlook firmly in focus. The technology sector was among the top performers, with ASML Holding and Infineon Technologies all advancing; luxury names also advanced, with LVMH up 1%.
Commodities and Rates
Crude oil hovered in positive territory on Middle East supply anxiety. Treasury yields held steady after last week's soft labor data prompted a repricing of the Fed path.
Key Levels to Watch
- Nasdaq Composite: In a rising trend channel in the medium-long term, signaling continued optimism, with the price having broken a resistance level; the index is testing resistance at 27,000, where an upward breakthrough would give a positive signal.
Macro Data Preview
Monday's U.S. economic calendar is light, positioning traders for the bigger releases later in the week. The week presents a critical cost-of-living checkup for investors, starting with the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. If inflation numbers indicate that June's cooling trend remained intact despite Middle East disruptions, market expectations for a stable Federal Reserve policy path could further fuel risk appetite.
