US stock index futures pointed higher in early Friday trade, with traders looking to close out a volatile week on a firm note as falling oil prices and ongoing US-Iran diplomacy eased pressure on global risk assets.
The Dow and S&P 500 futures are and Nasdaq 100 — advanced after Thursday's positive moves as oil prices eased and Iran talks continued. The S&P 500 was on track for its eighth straight weekly gain, the Dow was headed for its third positive week in four, and the Nasdaq Composite was on pace for its seventh weekly advance in the past eight weeks.
Equities: Yields and Iran Headlines Drive Tone
Thursday's session set an uneven backdrop for Friday's open. The S&P 500 and the Dow fell 0.5%, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.7%, as Nvidia shares hovered near the flatline despite beating earnings expectations and raising its dividen. The guidance for the upcoming quarter did not meet the upper range of analyst estimates that have been common in past quarters. Intuit slumped 20% on plans to reduce its workforce by 17%, and Walmart fell 2% after warning that higher fuel costs may weigh on the business if sustained.
Optimism over restored Middle East energy exports eased from the prior session, lifting yields and pressuring broader equities, though reports that Goldman Sachs will lead SpaceX's IPO lifted the bank's shares to a record high.
Rates remain a key swing factor: the 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.19% earlier in the week, its highest level since before the financial crisis, before easing to 5.09% on Thursday.
On the corporate news wire, Reuters reported JPMorgan is seeking to offload risk tied to more than $4 billion in loans to private equity funds, while Japanese quantum computing stocks rose sharply Friday, tracking overnight gains in their US peers.
Commodities: Crude Rebounds, Gold Hovers Above $4,500
Crude has been the dominant macro lever this week. WTI futures traded above $98 a barrel after falling nearly 6% over the prior two sessions, as traders cautiously weighed the possibility of a US-Iran deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Sentiment remained fragile amid persistent uncertainty, with Iran reviewing the latest US proposal and announcing the creation of a "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" enforcing a controlled maritime zone in the strait.
Oil prices remain elevated, nearly 50% above pre-war levels, supported by supply tightness and ongoing US inventory drawdowns. Nearly 10 million barrels were withdrawn from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week, the largest release on record.
Gold is consolidating after a sharp week. Bullion fell toward $4,500 an ounce on Thursday as hopes for a US-Iran peace deal faded following reports that Iran's Supreme Leader issued a directive ordering the country's uranium to remain on Iranian soil — contradicting Israeli officials' claims that highly enriched uranium would need to be transferred out as part of any deal — while Iran was reportedly restoring its military capacity faster than expected. Gold futures trading at $4,515.80 as of Friday. For context, gold prices remain about 14% lower since the conflict began, amid concerns that an energy-driven inflation shock could prompt central banks to tighten monetary policy.
FX: Dollar Higher Across the Board
The dollar gained ground despite the resurfacing of the Iran de-escalation narrative. The Japanese yen retreated after some early strength in the wake of cooler inflation data for April.
Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and ING all expect a softer greenback by year-end as Fed rate cuts return. Each step toward Iran de-escalation has historically delivered 1–2% dollar weakness within days. In the event of the resolution of the U.S.-Iran conflict, the safe-haven premium that supported the dollar through Q1 continues to unwind.
Pre-Market Snapshot — 7:20 AM ET
- S&P 500 Futures: 7,4769.25 (+0.16%)
- Dow Futures: 7,476.25 (+0.27%)
- Nasdaq-100 Futures: 29,474.00 (+0.09%)
- Russell 2000 Futures: 2,847.40 (unchanged)
- VIX: 17.10 (+1.49%)
- WTI Crude Futures: $98.40 (+2.13%)
- Gold Futures: $4,515.80 (-0.59%)
- EUR/USD: 1.1594 (-0.22%)
- Bitcoin (USD): $71,138.25 (+0.04%)
What to Watch After the Bell Rings
- Final May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment — the marquee data point of the session, including May inflation expectations
- Iran headlines — Pakistani mediators are expected to travel to Tehran while Iran reviews Washington's latest proposal
- Chip names — follow-through after Nvidia's mixed reception and continued Samsung labor disruption, which could impact roughly 3% of global memory chip production
- Yen price action near 160 — intervention risk remains live, with the long end of the US curve still elevated after this week's rate scare
