U.S. stock index futures pointed higher ahead of Monday's opening bell on the first full trading session after the Independence Day holiday, with traders bracing for the June Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services print and an after-close index rebalance that will fold SpaceX into the Nasdaq-100.
Heading into the session, stock futures maintained positive momentum following a strong week on Wall Street that drove the Dow Jones Industrial Average to record highs, with futures tied to the 30-stock benchmark edging up 0.05%, S&P 500 futures gaining 0.49% and Nasdaq-100 futures advancing more than 1% as markets prepare to reopen following Friday's U.S. Independence Day holiday . The Dow climbed nearly 2% last week, putting it within striking distance of 53,000, a level it has never reached, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.8% and 2.1%, respectively.
Data on deck
The economic calendar is light but market-moving. S&P Global's final U.S. Services PMI for June is due at 9:45 a.m. ET with a consensus of 51.3, versus 50.7 previously, followed by the ISM Services PMI at 10:00 a.m. ET, which last printed at 54.5. A softer services read could reinforce rate-cut expectations, while a hot print risks lifting yields.
Later in the week, the FOMC minutes are due July 8 at 2:00 p.m. ET , with traders looking for confirmation of the committee's June signal. The Fed held rates at 4.25%-4.50% at its June 2026 meeting and signaled two potential cuts later this year, a posture that has supported equity valuations through the first half of 2026. Fed funds futures are pricing roughly 60% to 65% probability of a September 2026 rate cut, maintaining a supportive backdrop for equities.
SpaceX rebalance in focus
The single biggest single-name flow event of the session comes after the close. Nasdaq announced that SpaceX qualifies for inclusion in the benchmark technology index, and index-tracking funds and other product sponsors would begin purchasing shares after the market closes on July 6, with SpaceX officially joining the Nasdaq-100 before trading begins on July 7.
Funds that track the Nasdaq-100, including the Invesco QQQ Trust, will need to buy SpaceX stock after market close on July 6, and JPMorgan estimates the passive inflows could total $4.3 billion; SpaceX has a tiny float of only about 4%, meaning that kind of investment may push the price up. Some sell-side estimates place total passive demand as high as roughly $27 billion, including about $4.3 billion from QQQ alone.
The stock is estimated to enter the Nasdaq-100 at a weighting of less than 1%. S&P Global, by contrast, has said it won't relax its own rules and will wait at least a year before weighing SpaceX for the S&P 500.
Rates, dollar and oil
Treasuries head into the U.S. open near recent ranges, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury edging down 1.6 points to 4.463%. Yields had held around 4.48% ahead of the June jobs report as data showed private-sector hiring slowed more than expected and ISM PMI indicated wholesale energy prices had returned to pre-Middle East conflict levels, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation expectations had eased over the past month.
In commodities, U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for August were down over 0.50% at $68.32 per barrel. The OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day in August as the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens.
Premarket snapshot
| Instrument | Level / Change |
|---|---|
| Dow futures | +0.05% |
| S&P 500 futures | +0.49% |
| Nasdaq-100 futures | +1.09% |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 4.463% |
| Brent crude (Sep) | $71.55 / down about 0.80% |
| WTI crude (Aug) | $68.32/ down more than 0.50% |
Stocks to watch
- SpaceX (SPCX): Focus name of the session; tracker funds set to buy after the close ahead of Tuesday's Nasdaq-100 inclusion.
- Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ): Will absorb SpaceX weighting alongside broader Nasdaq-100 rebalancing.
- American Bitcoin (ABTC): Begins trading following a 1-for-15 reverse split that cut outstanding shares to about 73 million, per CoinDesk.
- Semiconductors: A group that faltered last week bears watching as investors gauge whether the rotation out of chips extends into the new week.
Global backdrop
Asia set a mixed tone. Chinese markets opened in the green, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index advancing 1.14%, while the CSI 300 ending marginally lower. In Europe, Stoxx 50 was down 0.04% in early afternoon trading. However, the major stock market gauges in the region, namely the German DAX, the London's FTSE 100 and France's CAC 40 traded higher.
