U.S. stock index futures pointed to a weaker open Thursday as heavy capital spending plans and mixed results from Alphabet and Tesla revived concerns about the cost of the artificial intelligence buildout, while rising crude oil prices added another layer of caution ahead of Intel's earnings and weekly jobless claims data.
The pullback follows a soft Wednesday session on Wall Street. The broad market index dropped 0.14% to end at 7,498.96, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.57% to 25,690.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 6.06 points, or 0.01%, and closed at 52,218.58. Oil remained a key overhang, with WTI crude futures rising about 2.3% to settle at $86.83 per barrel, hitting their highest closing levels in over a month.
Premarket Snapshot
| Instrument | Level / Move |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7,511/-0.39% |
| Dow futures | 29,046/-0.46% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 52,222/-0.43% |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | Watching; oil-driven inflation bid in focus; up 1.8 points at 4.68% |
| WTI crude (front-month) | $90.32/up over 4%, extending gains near six-week high |
| Brent crude (front-month) | $98.51/+4.82% |
| Gold futures | $4,091.50/-1.45% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 101.17/+0.05% |
| Cboe VIX | 17.78/+6.86% |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $65,750.01/-0.39% |
MarketFramework's Positioning Edge Tool showed profitable traders are 60% long on the Nasdaq E-mini (NQ) contract, while unprofitable traders are 66% long on the contract. Unprofitable traders are more crowded on the long side (66%), often a sign of chasing momentum or herding rather than disciplined entries. With the two cohorts nearly converging, it could mean that the trade is getting crowded overall, raising the odds of a sharper pullback if sentiment reverses.
US Stocks in Focus
Alphabet (GOOGL) — Shares fell over 4% in premarket trading on Thursday after the firm signalled increased AI spending, unnerving investors worried about the mounting costs of the artificial intelligence boom. Alphabet raised its capital expenditure forecast for this year to $195 billion to $205 billion and warned of higher figures in 2027, above its previous projection of $180 billion to $190 billion.
Tesla (TSLA) — Tesla stock fell 5% in early premarket trade as earnings missed estimates despite record deliveries, with investors focused on rising AI and robotics spending. Tesla posted a big bottom-line miss in Q2 at $0.33 per share versus $0.50 anticipated, while revenues improved to $28.26 billion in the quarter, above the $25.81 billion expected and up 26% year over year.
IBM (IBM) — Adjusted earnings of $2.93 per share slightly missed consensus estimates by 4 cents per share, per LSEG, while revenue of $17.16 billion fell slightly short of estimates of $17.58 billion. Shares had already come under pressure Wednesday.
ServiceNow (NOW) — Stock is in focus after a strong AI-driven report.
Technology earnings led to mixed stock moves, with ServiceNow rising on strong AI-driven growth and Tesla and Alphabet falling on profit pressures despite revenue increases.
Memory and chip names (MU, SNDK, WDC, SK Hynix ADRs) — Memory stocks gained ground after Alphabet boosted AI spending plans.
T-Mobile US (TMUS), Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Honeywell (HON) — Reporting before the open. Analysts expect T-Mobile US to post quarterly earnings of $2.59 per share on revenue of $22.94 billion before the opening bell.
Archer Aviation (ACHR) and SpaceX-linked names (SPCX) — In focus after Cathie Wood's ARK Investment disclosed significant stock purchases in both companies.
Hyliion (HYLN) — Hyliion's stock surged after winning a $41.7M U.S. contract.
Intel (INTC) — Focus shifts to the release of initial jobless claims today, as well as Intel earnings.
Asia: Chipmakers Power a Broad Rally
Asian equities finished mostly higher on Thursday, with regional chip names leading gains as investors interpreted Alphabet's spending surge as a positive read-through for the AI hardware supply chain. Asian shares advanced as regional chipmakers gained on expectations they will benefit from billions of dollars flowing into the AI buildout, with oil extending its recent gains. MSCI's Asia Pacific equities gauge climbed 1%, with the Kospi — a bellwether for AI investments — rising 4.40%. Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. both gained more than 3% as investors bet the South Korean chipmakers will be among the beneficiaries of the global AI spending.
Elsewhere in the region, Asian stocks were trading mixed on Thursday with Japan's Nikkei gaining 0.43 per cent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.56 per cent, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries added 0.63 per cent, while Pakistan's KSE 100 dropped 0.97 per cent and Malaysia's FTSE Bursa KLCI and Vietnam's HNX 30 also traded in negative territory, down 0.60 per cent and 0.44 per cent, respectively.
Europe: Cautious Start After Record-Chasing Session
European equities opened cautiously Thursday after Wednesday's mixed session, as regional traders digested U.S. mega-cap earnings and the continued climb in crude prices. In the previous session, European stocks closed higher amid a rebound for the global AI sector as markets positioned for major earnings reports.
Chipmaker STMicroelectronics (STM) fell over 14% following disappointing forward guidance. Roche Holdings, Iberdrola, UniCredit and TE Connectivity are among the notable names reporting, with cyclical and semiconductor-exposed stocks in focus after the Alphabet capex signal.
Commodities and Macro Backdrop
Crude has been the dominant macro driver this week. Oil prices advanced following the 11th straight round of U.S. strikes against Iran, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying Iran is "not serious about talks." The bid in energy has kept inflation expectations elevated and complicated the risk-on narrative for rate-sensitive tech.
Key Levels to Watch
- S&P 500: Wednesday's close of 7,498.96 sits just below the 7,500 psychological line — a break below could open the door to a retest of last week's lows.
- Nasdaq Composite: 25,690.90 close leaves the index vulnerable to a deeper pullback if mega-cap tech extends losses; watch 25,500 as near-term support.
- Nasdaq 100 (technical backdrop): The index has broken a support level in the short term and given a negative signal for the short-term trading range, with support at 23,700 and resistance at 27,000.
- WTI crude: Holding above $86 keeps the six-week uptrend intact;
- VIX: A move above 18 from Wednesday's 16.64 close would signal a broader shift in hedging demand.
