Adam Mancini
The Canadian ES trader who has posted his plan publicly every trading day for a decade, whose levels get drawn on other people’s charts and whose Failed Breakdown is now part of the language.
Compiled by MarketFramework editorial · Last reviewed Oct 8, 2026
▶ Latest video · Sep 22, 2019Editorial profile. Adam Mancini is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by MarketFramework or MyFundedFutures, and this profile is not endorsed by Adam. MarketFramework is operated by MyFundedFutures, a futures prop firm. Compiled from public sources; performance figures are as stated by the creator and are not independently verified. Corrections & removal requests.
Adam Mancini is a Canada-based full-time futures trader who day trades the E-mini S&P 500 and has posted his levels and setups publicly on X since 2016. He writes the paid daily Trade Companion newsletter on Substack, ranked among the top finance publications on the platform, and is best known for the Failed Breakdown setup and a strict level-to-level style of trade management.
Trades
E-mini S&P
ES intraday · ETF swings
Style
Level to level
failed breakdowns · long-biased
Trading since
2006
ES full time · self-reported
Based
Canada
X
299K
followers · Sep 2026
Publishes
Trade Companion
daily Substack since 2021
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BEST KNOWN FOR
Daily ES levels and the Failed Breakdown
Before each session Mancini publishes a slate of support and resistance levels for the E-mini S&P 500. He marks them "hit" on his open X feed as the day unfolds, then sends a chart and trade plan to paying subscribers every afternoon. He has kept that routine for roughly five years of newsletters and ten years of public posting. His primary setup, the Failed Breakdown, is now so closely tied to him that third-party videos, indicators and even a standalone web tool exist purely to plot "Mancini levels."
IN ADAM'S WORDS
“Pro traders aren’t any better at "predicting" where the market will go than a hobby trader, and its not the job. The difference is all in execution: Finding lvls, protecting profits once available, stopping out & adjusting when wrong, and consistant loss size control.”
X, June 2022 (pinned post)
“A game changer for me as a day trader was realizing there is no shortage of moves. Every day has 2-3 good moves and if it doesnt the next day will.”
X, December 2025
“Trading is simple, but not easy.”
mancini-trading.com
Adam Mancini's latest video
“ES/SPX Weekly Update September 22nd” · published Sep 22, 2019 · 10.2K views
Who is Adam Mancini?
Adam Mancini is a full-time futures trader based in Canada. As he tells it, he began trading in late 2006 as a swing trader in mid- and large-cap stocks, then moved into penny stocks. Around 2009 he opened his first futures account to trade crude oil and natural gas, a "trial by fire" he says pushed him towards the E-mini S&P 500, which he found traded cleaner. The ES has been his full-time market ever since, alongside ETF swing trades held for two to seven days.
His public profile grew from a single habit: posting his levels and setups on X every trading day since the account opened in May 2016. The feed is open rather than a private room; he calls the posts "my notes only". During market hours it works as a live scorecard, with pre-market supports and targets marked "hit" or adjusted as the session develops. That transparency is unusual, and it is the reason his following has reached roughly 299,000.
In September 2021 he launched a paid daily newsletter, Adam Mancini’s S&P 500 (SPX/ES Futures) Trade Companion, on Substack. Each afternoon it carries a chart, the next day’s levels, the triggers for trading them and his general outlook, plus a standing guide to his full methodology. By September 2026 the archive ran to almost 1,500 issues and the publication ranked tenth on Substack’s paid finance leaderboard. He is explicit that it is a plan, not a signal service, and his official site states that the newsletter, X and an inactive YouTube channel are the only accounts he maintains.
That focus is part of the appeal. He sells nothing but the newsletter, and the traders who follow him tend to praise the same things: clean levels, no fluff and a plan that arrives every day without fail. His levels are used widely enough that fans have built TradingView indicators and a standalone web tool purely to plot them.
In a corner of the internet crowded with courses, Mancini has built one of its most respected reputations by doing the opposite. No course, no room, no upsell: just a level every morning, a plan every afternoon and a decade of showing his work in public. That consistency is why his levels get drawn on other people’s charts before the open, and why "Mancini support" needs no explanation to the traders who follow him.
How Adam trades
The Failed Breakdown
Mancini’s primary setup is the Failed Breakdown, also called a bear trap: price breaks below a well-defined support level, fails to find sellers, and reclaims the level, trapping the traders who sold the break. The long entry comes on the reclaim, with the stop back below the low of the failed move. He has said he trades the long side around 95% of the time, on the view that the S&P trends up roughly three-quarters of the time. The remainder, sharp sell-offs followed by squeezes, is exactly where failed breakdowns appear.
Secondary setups exist, chiefly reclaims and back-tests of levels, but he tells subscribers the ratio should be roughly 90% failed breakdowns and 10% reclaims. Reclaims should only be taken when pre-planned and showing full "acceptance", meaning price holds above the level rather than merely poking through it.
Levels from channels, then level to level
The levels themselves come from channels, meaning trend lines on multiple timeframes whose intersections with price produce what he describes as "ultra high precise" supports and resistances. Each morning’s post lists a handful of supports, a slate of targets above and the "major" levels below. The plan is to trade between them: enter at one level, take partial profits at the next, and let a remaining piece "ride the runner" while the stop is trailed behind.
He describes trade management, not entry, as his real edge. His most-shared post argues that professionals are no better than hobbyists at predicting direction. The difference is execution: finding levels, protecting profits once available, stopping out when wrong and keeping loss size consistent. A related theme is patience. Every day has two or three good moves, and losses come from treating each move as the only one.
Instruments, session and risk
The E-mini S&P 500 is his only intraday market, referenced alongside the SPX cash index, and his ETF swing trades run for two to seven days. Posting begins pre-market around 8am Eastern and continues through the regular session. The newsletter takes roughly two weeks off a year, announced in advance.
As with every trader profiled here, the method is summarised from his own published material; it is not a recommendation, and futures trading involves substantial risk of loss.
See how the wider prop-trading field is positioned in ES while you study a method like this: MarketFramework's Positioning Edge shows live long/short splits across ES, NQ, MES and MNQ from real evaluation and funded accounts, and Prop Backtest scores strategies against prop-firm rules.
Adam Mancini's career timeline
Begins trading as an equity swing trader (self-reported). source
Opens his first futures account, trading crude oil and natural gas before settling on the E-mini S&P 500 (self-reported). source
Opens the @AdamMancini4 account in May and begins posting daily ES levels and setups publicly. source
Posts the only video on his official YouTube channel, a weekly ES/SPX update; the channel has been inactive since. source
Launches the paid daily Trade Companion newsletter on Substack in September; first archived issue in November. source
His post on execution over prediction becomes his most-shared, with more than 5,700 likes. source
Publishes "My Trade Methodology - Fundamentals," the reference post his site points new readers to. source
Trade Companion ranks tenth on Substack’s paid finance leaderboard with close to 1,500 issues published. source
Adam Mancini's videos
Prop firms Adam works with
No prop-firm partnerships announced.
He has not announced a prop-firm partnership; his site, X profile and newsletter point only to his own work.
His official site lists his accounts: X, the Substack newsletter and an inactive YouTube channel. He does not run a Discord, Telegram or paid chat room.
We list a firm relationship only with dated public evidence from the last 30 days, re-checked each editorial pass.
ADAM MANCINI: FREQUENTLY ASKED
What does Adam Mancini trade?
The E-mini S&P 500 futures contract (ES), traded intraday level to level, plus ETF swing trades held for two to seven days. He traded crude oil and natural gas futures earlier in his career, by his own account.
What is a Failed Breakdown?
Mancini’s primary setup: price breaks below a defined support level, fails to attract follow-through selling and reclaims the level, trapping the sellers. The trade is a long on the reclaim with the stop below the failed low. He also trades reclaims and back-tests of levels as secondary setups.
What is Adam Mancini’s net worth?
He has not disclosed his net worth, and MarketFramework does not estimate net worth for the traders it profiles.
Which prop firm does Adam Mancini use?
None announced. His site, X profile and newsletter point only to his own work.
How do you get Adam Mancini’s levels?
He posts key levels and updates publicly on X during the trading day, and sends the full chart, level slate and next-day plan to paid subscribers of his Substack newsletter each afternoon. Third-party TradingView indicators that plot "Mancini levels" are built by fans and are not connected to him.
SOURCES
- Adam Mancini, official site (mancini-trading.com)accessed Sep 14, 2026
- Adam Mancini: X profileaccessed Sep 14, 2026
- Trade Companion: About meaccessed Sep 14, 2026
- Trade Companion: Substack publicationaccessed Sep 14, 2026
- Substack: Trade Companion leaderboard listingaccessed Sep 14, 2026
- NexusFi forum thread on the newsletteraccessed Sep 14, 2026
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