U.S. equity index futures were higher early Thursday as traders digested a heavy slate of mega-cap earnings, crude oil’s retreat from a four-year high and a hawkish lean from the Federal Reserve — with the European Central Bank decision, the first estimate of Q1 GDP, March PCE inflation and Apple's results all still to come.
Pre-Market Snapshot (Quotes as of 7:50 a.m. ET)
- S&P 500 Futures: 7,189.25 (+0.30%)
- Dow Futures: 49,314 (+0.62%)
- Nasdaq-100 Futures: 27,420 (+0.35%)
- Russell 2000 Futures: 2,776.20 (+0.32%)
- VIX: 18.09 (-3.83%)
- WTI Crude Futures: $105.13 (-1.64%)
- Gold Futures: $4,646 (+1.85%)
- EUR/USD: 1.1718 (+0.37%)
- Bitcoin (USD): $76,083.52 (-1/93%)
Big Tech Earnings Reset the AI Narrative
Equity traders bought into a technology-led rally fueled by strong earnings while debt investors sold on concerns over elevated oil prices and a divided Fed. The Nasdaq 100 contracts rose after broadly positive results from Alphabet and Amazon, while chipmakers Samsung Electronics and Qualcomm added to the optimism.
The outlier was Meta. Shares of the Facebook parent fell more than 9% after 2026 capital expenditures (capex) guidance was raised and user growth disappointed. The stock's decline is a drag on Dow futures despite the broader tech beat.
Apple is the next heavyweight on the docket, scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 earnings after Thursday's close. The print carries extra weight following Apple's announcement that Tim Cook will step down as CEO and transition to executive chairman, with hardware engineering chief John Ternus becoming CEO effective September 1.
Fed Delivers Most Divided Vote Since 1992
The Federal Reserve voted Wednesday to hold interest rates steady in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, as markets expected — but the 8-4 vote marked the first time four Fed officials have dissented since 1992. The April meeting will likely be Chair Jerome Powell's last at the helm before his term ends next month, with Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to succeed him, on track to take over.
Powell said he will remain on the Board of Governors until an ongoing probe into the renovation of the central bank's headquarters is resolved. "I've said that I will not leave the board until this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality, and I stand by that," he said at the post-meeting press conference.
Markets have now priced out the chance of a Fed rate cut this year entirely, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, and are pricing in a nearly 50% probability of a rate hike by June 2027.
Commodities: Crude Falls from 4-Year High on Iran Blockade
Oil extended its run Wednesday after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump has directed aides to prepare for an extended naval blockade of Iran. Prices took a further leg higher after Axios reported Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, insisting the blockade will stay in place until a deal addressing Iran's nuclear program is reached. WTI futures surged 7.17% to settle at $107.16 per barrel; Brent advanced 6.78% to close at $118.80. In the Asian session, it topped $125 per barrel but has since retreated.
Gold is attempting to stabilize after a sharp pullback, trading above $4,650 per ounce.
Forex: Dollar Firms Ahead of ECB; EUR/USD breaks support
The euro was seen modestly higher against the greenback in early New York hours, although down from weekly highs near 1.1756. The euro’s rebound came after the Eurostat reported a pick up in inflationary pressure in April.
The ECB is widely expected to hold rates steady, with several Governing Council members recently signaling no immediate need for action. The meeting will serve mainly as a check on market rate expectations, with investors pricing in roughly 50 basis points of tightening by year-end.
Overseas: Asia Tracks Wall Street Lower
Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell Thursday, tracking overnight Wall Street weakness as oil prices climbed and the Fed's divided vote unsettled risk sentiment. Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 1.06% to close at 59,284.92 and the Topix fell 1.19% to 3,727.21 after markets resumed following a holiday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.28% in its final hour of trade; mainland China's CSI 300 closed flat at 4,807.30.
What to watch today
- ECB rate decision and Lagarde press conference
- U.S. Q1 GDP first estimate
- March PCE and core PCE price indexes
- Apple (AAPL) earnings after the close
- Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Merck, ConocoPhillips, Amgen, Altria, SanDisk and Western Digital results
- Crude oil headlines tied to the Strait of Hormuz blockade
- EUR/USD reaction to macro data and rate decision
