U.S. stock index futures were mostly higher Friday as investors positioned ahead of the July employment report, the week's marquee data release, with earnings-driven single-stock moves dominating the premarket tape. Futures pointed to a flat open as investors awaited the closely watched July jobs report for fresh signals on labor market conditions and the potential path of Federal Reserve monetary policy.
The steady tone follows a soft cash session on Thursday. During Thursday's regular session, the Dow declined 0.85%, the S&P 500 eased 0.18%, and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.06%, with eight of the 11 S&P sectors ending in negative territory, with industrials, real estate and materials posting the steepest losses as a rebound in oil prices reignited concerns that the Fed could raise interest rates as soon as next month. Sentiment weakened following reports that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is considering a September rate hike.
Macro Data Preview: July Payrolls Take Center Stage
The BLS will release the next jobs report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Friday. As a group, economists expect the U.S. to have added 85,000 new jobs in July and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%. The consensus range for payrolls spans 40,000 to 157,000, with the year-over-year (YoY) average hourly earnings growth seen at 3.5%. The release is the first major data point after the Fed's 9–3 vote on July 29 to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%, its most divided decision since 2016.
Premarket Snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7,745.25 | +0.14% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 29,608.25 | +0.41% |
| Dow futures | 5,4024.00 | +0.02% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.662% | down marginally |
| WTI crude (Sep) | $77.16 | -0.17% |
| Brent crude (Oct) | $82.10 | +0.47% |
| Gold (Dec) | $4,372.40 | +1.69% |
| DXY | 99.93 | flat |
| VIX | 15.28 | +0.86% |
| Bitcoin | $64,822.09 | +0.42% |
The positioning backdrop for the E-mini S&P futures (ES) is bearish into NFP. Profitable traders have moved decisively to the short side while unprofitable traders remain net long. This suggests that the "smart money" is preparing for either:
- A stronger-than-expected payrolls report,
- Higher Treasury yields,
- Or a post-rally pullback after recent gains.
For a market sitting near record highs, this is a notable warning signal that upside conviction among experienced traders has weakened considerably.
US Stocks in Focus
- Airbnb (ABNB) — Shares surged nearly 8% after the home-rentals platform reported stronger-than-expected revenue and earnings.
- Cloudflare (NET) — Up more than 16% on an upbeat full-year and current-quarter outlook.
- Hertz Global (HTZ) - Shares found follow-through buying (+18%) after they closed up nearly 30% following better-than-expected quarterly results reported before the market open on Thursday.
- Digital ad tech company Trade Desk's (TTD) shares plunged more than 27% in Friday's premarket following disappointing quarterly results.
- Atlassian (TEAM) - soared more than 32% on fourth-quarter beat.
- DraftKings (DKNG) — Slipped about 3% after falling short of revenue estimates.
Asian Markets: Cautious Finish Ahead of US Payrolls
Asia-Pacific equities closed on a mixed note Friday, with risk appetite constrained by the resurgence of Middle East tensions and the impending U.S. labor data. China's Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index advanced 1.02% and 0.54%, respectively, while tech-heavy averages such as South Korea's Kospi and Taiwanese Weighted Average Index posted moderate declines.
European Markets: Record-High Backdrop Meets Payrolls Caution
European bourses opened higher, extending a stretch that has kept the region near record territory. The major averages from the region, including the STOXX 50 Index, advanced by the mid-session, with traders potentially deriving encouragement from oil's slide.
Commodities
Crude gave up early gains, with the WTI contract down about modestly ahead of the U.S. open. The reversal comes amid U.S. President Donald Trump comments at an Oval Office press meet that the Iran war could end soon. "I think it's going to end pretty soon. I don't think they can go much longer," Trump told reporters Thursday. Brent edged down, by about 0.40%.
On Thursday, both contracts rose after reports indicated Iran struck what it described as "hostile targets" in the strait after explosions were reported near Qeshm Island, with a proposed Iran-Oman agreement seeking to bar US and Israeli vessels from transiting Hormuz and require countries deemed hostile to pay compensation before being granted passage.
Technical Levels to Watch
- S&P 500: The index sits near 7,704 after Thursday's decline; traders eye the 7,700 handle as immediate pivot with RBC's 8,150 target as the medium-term upside marker.
Beyond the headline payrolls number, traders will parse the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings for signals on the Fed's September path. July CPI lands August 12 and July PPI follows August 13, the two inflation reports markets will weigh most heavily ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.
