The Nasdaq stole the show on Monday. The Nasdaq 100 (NQ) surged about 2.8%, with December futures rocketing to new highs near 30,786 and pressing the 31,000 mark, while the S&P 500 rose 1.5% for its best day since early August.
Falling oil and a chip-led rally did the heavy lifting after a rough previous week.
What Drove It
Two things lined up.
First, chipmakers ran hard: early signs that Meta’s new AI agent is working lifted the whole semiconductor group, and AMD briefly topped a $1 trillion market value.
Second, and more important for the wider tape, oil dropped sharply, U.S. crude fell about 4% to near $95 and Brent slipped to around $100 on hopes that diplomacy could cool the Iran war.
President Trump said he would probably be open to meeting Iran’s president on the sidelines of this week’s UN gathering. Cheaper oil pulled Treasury yields lower, with the 10-year slipping back below 5%, and that combination revived risk appetite.
The Catch
Here is the problem: the rally rests on oil staying down, and the supply risks have not gone away.
Iran-backed Houthis struck Saudi Arabia over the weekend, Russia looks set to extend a diesel export ban, and Chevron’s boss warned that the market’s spare-supply cushions are gone.
As LPL’s Jeffrey Roach put it, the same conflict inflating energy prices is also what is keeping the Fed hawkish and Chair Warsh has tied his inflation view to oil calming down.
The Fed hiked only last week, its first rise in three years, so if crude jumps again, yields back up and this risk-on move can reverse quickly. Ed Yardeni made the same point, noting the supply risks are “not going away.”
Nasdaq Technical Outlook
NQ (December futures) went near-vertical, tagging 30,786 and pressing the 31,000 round number after clearing 30,000, the level that had capped it for weeks.
Price now sits in clear air above both the 100-MA (29,478) and 200-MA (29,564). The catch: RSI at 81.6 is deeply overbought, the kind of stretched reading that has marked short-term tops before.
Nasdaq (NQ) Four-Hour Chart, September 21, 2026
Source: TradingView
On a pullback, support starts at 30,300, before 30,000 then the average cluster around 29,480–29,560, the 29,291 shelf (the desk’s recurring 29,264.75 pivot) and 29,000.
A close back below 30,000 would be the first sign the breakout is stalling.
Possible Scenarios for NQ
| Scenario | What it takes, and where NQ goes (catalysts: the summit Thursday, PCE Friday) |
|---|---|
| Bull | Oil stays soft as Iran diplomacy at the UN gains ground, yields ease further, the Trump–Xi tone is warm and Friday’s PCE comes in soft. NQ holds above 30,000, clears 31,000 and runs into blue sky. |
| Base | An overbought NQ consolidates around 31,000, chopping sideways to digest the surge into the summit and PCE. Dips toward 30,000 get bought, but the easy money from the vertical move is done. |
| Bear | Oil re-spikes on a Middle East supply headline, yields climb back above 5%, or the summit/PCE disappoints. The stretched NQ fades fast, loses 30,000 and slides toward the 29,480–29,560 average cluster and the 29,291 pivot. |
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